INDEPENDENCE DAY -> HELL TO PAY !!
Imagine the anger and angst if you were a baby abandoned this way.
Fig 1 (Aug 28, 2013)
Now to quote John Murphy: “ 'Any Time Dimension' "
"All of the (above) chart types can be employed for any time dimension. The daily chart, which is most popular time period, is used to study price trends for the past year. For longer range trend analysis going back five or ten years, weekly and monthly charts can be employed” CHART SCHOOL LINK at STOCKCHARTS.
Now history is NOT going to tell us what is going to happen, only that it has in the past, or not. This math is not to tell you WHAT will happen but intends to show WHAT CAN happen.
This leg has already seen 3 GAPS in the Month of JUNE, 2016.
Here is the math for the JUNE Gaps:
June2-3 = 1.11 / unfilled
June23-24 = 0.60 / unfilled
June 30-Jul 1 = 0.69 /unfilled gap unfilledSo we have about $2.40 GDX of
Figure for yourself if you think it could jump GDX $ 1.97 ->
I find that a credible threat.
One measure partially implying the upward pressure under GDX is the HUGE estimated Upside target
of 52.5. It ain't real till it happens but its like a bird dog, he knows there is a big bird in that thicket, and it wants to flush, like a big cock pheasant, skyward.
To reference, please ck Blog Posts on 9/10/13; 9/23/13;
10/29/13; 3/6/16 which all relate to The Straits of Hell and WHALE Island.
So what have we got here ? My assessment is we have a trend going on,
warped by years of suppression, holding down demand until it could no longer be suppressed. So was it a big surprise when the GDX would not go below a level comparable to 1942, when the US Govt stopped Gold Mining and diverted those assets and that energy to the War Effort? No because there was no profit then, as there was no profit anticipated by the GDX dropping to 12.5. GDX clawed its way back and refused to die, so the gapping activity is no surprise given the vicious surpressionfrom 2012. THE TREND IS WARPED !! TO THE UPSIDE !!
Thus in a betting situation, I am betting on it staying warped. But to what end?
Well if the GDX fords the Straits of Hell, like an Amphibious Military Division, and the beachhead will be established north of 32.64 GDX. If like a Crown Fire, in a forest fire in a Spruce or Pine forest, the GDX leaps over and Gaps over The Straits of HELL, there will be one helluva fire on the other side, AND we will have WHALE ISLAND, a 3 year long ISLAND BOTTOM, an Abandoned Baby. ! ! ! !
All of the above chart types can be employed for any time dimension. The daily chart, which is most popular time period, is used to study price trends for the past year. For longer range trend analysis going back five or ten years, weekly and monthly charts can be employed.” CHART SCHOOL LINK at STOCKCHARTS.
So while it is far from a sure thing, it is, just as surely possible to see a 3 year long ISLAND BOTTOM. Add in the fact that the STRAITS OF HELL are 18 points off the Bottom, it is just as true that, adding those 18 points to the north side of The STRAITS of HELL would take us very close to the Estimated Target of 52.5, adding credibility to this potential. Bears watching............
Either scenario is bullish, but given the massive suppression, something must give in order to balance what is to come. Given the horrendous fundamentals for most things other than Gold, I don't think I'll be on the Gold Bears.
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Once we get to the end of next week, July 8, our prices will go up !!