for this, seems very out of kilter, out of whack
To assure myself I was not dreaming, I ran separate Linear Regressions on the NYSE Volume(BLUE) and the NY Stock Exchange Average(RED) and they are clearly going their separate ways by a large margin, which is a concern for me as markets tend to resolve in the direction of the volume. There are enough BLACK SWANS around to warrant lots of caution and this is huge RED FLAG for me, concerning general equities. I'd have to say it makes me feel the market is quite treacherous.
Given the latter GREENSPAN years when the GREENSPAN PUT was in effect and "they" would just not let the markets go down, BEFORE Lehman and the Euro Crises and it puts me even more on edge.
Armstrong is fond of saying that money will be fleeing debt securities for stocks, but that does not eliminate the idea of a serious either Flash Crash or Ala'87 type move, which I want not to be involved in, on the long side until it abates. Right now I am waiting for THAT shoe to drop.
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Monday, February 27, 2012
Saturday, February 25, 2012
"Gun Fight at the OK Corral", 100+ mil oz of paper silver FAILED, lost
the gunfight. +100 Mil oz of Paper shorts failed to cap Comex Silver price under $35 USD. Getting Scary !
Standy by to see where it goes from here ! ! ! The metal silver is the thing that is not so easily capped.
Standy by to see where it goes from here ! ! ! The metal silver is the thing that is not so easily capped.
Friday, February 24, 2012
This is THE one party where you will NOT want to be late --
for I think being late to take protective action will carry a lot of bad karma..
Way better to sell "TOO EARLY" than be 1 second late.
Way better to sell "TOO EARLY" than be 1 second late.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
As intent as I watch the general market, this development in silver has my
attention, and here is why:
The current silver advance may be fought over at 35, but of course the hidden item is that the derivative contracts are supposed to have a "Poison Pill" clause ( according to WB sources, formerly of JPM) that considerably "poison the soup" if the silver price stays above 36 for 60 days. Lets just forget about that for a moment, and look at the "GOAL LINE" on this regression chart. The middle line is essentially a moving pivot that divides weakness from strength, and this is a LT Chart, 3 yrs. On the shorter charts, 3 mo, 6 mo & 1 yr, the price ( even COMEX at that) has surmounted the middle line and moved into strength. NOW it remains to be seen if the price will leap over that middle line anytime before Jun 30 (arbitrary date). My numbers say Silver can bounce off the ceiling at 37.5, 40.0 or 42.5, without RADICALLY changing the trend we are now stuck with. What will RADICALLY alter the balance is the Silver price VAULTING over that blue line, because that then, from a statistical point of view, suggests that SILVER is then going to Touch the Top Line before the TREND has a chance to re-set its Equilibrium. It seems to me from my crude attempts to measure that top level that it would be btwn 70 & 90 U$D, again my guess at this point. Its a guess, but an educated guess, IMO.
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