Thursday, February 11, 2016

CARTEL~BUSTER ! - A hasty post for all who want to see !! I think this one tells a story.

all the red circles cover critical zones that are now stalling.
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Friday, February 5, 2016

HOTEL CALIFORNIA ? Which straw will break this Camel's back?

DO you have to pick one?  Pretty much it could be anyone.   They take your stock out behind the barn and shoot in the head.  Game over.  OK so its only wounded, say 20% in a day.   Did it put you under water?

Where do we start ? Glencore is one tiny alphabet letter away from going to the lowest form of investment grade rating to JUNK. One letter. Hmmm. Not to dwell on that but is that the only piece of BAD news out there ?
We know with so many Black Swans about, one of them is carrying in its bill, a straw to break this camel's back. Ukraine ? Syria ? Moldovia ? Yes, Moldovia ! Yes, Syria, oh yea. Turkey ? Kurdistan. The Saud's want to send troops to Syria, to fight whom.
Anyway you get the idea, all the Monetary Authorities, and thus us, are in
HOTEL CALIFORNIA. We can check out, but we can never leave.
Either we NIRP or QE endlessly until the markets roll over and bring the masses out chasing them with pitchforks and torches. Or they STOP EVERYTHING !
OH, Guess what ? The music stops, and there are not enuf chairs. Now being good sports, the participants realize they are DONE !, and start breaking the chairs over one and others heads till the riot squad hauls them away in handcuffs. Of course when Joe and Mary 6PAK cant get cigs or beer, there is a fair probability they may storm the lockup, to get at the people they want to lynch. Well, no problem, right?
Did the markets remain liquid or did things go without bids and huge gaps open up ? Did you hear the term “Liquidity Fractures” ? Don't matter, that is what I came up with October 2 years ago when the Treas 10 Yr went without bid, and scared the feathers out of the secondary and primary govt security dealers. US Govt Securities WITHOUT A BID ? ? ?
Flash forward to last month, when the London Silver Fix, undercut the Spot price by 84 cents and did the same thing another day. Without recounting them all, this is how the system is showing you its coming apart, because things are stopping working the way they were designed. Continious pricing full time auction markets, i.e. NYSE, will be not continious. You may have to fish for bids. Do you have say GM, or JPM, or other institutionally driven stocks, you may not notice. Having anyting less liquid subjects you to the danger of hunting for bids when you want to sell and maybe not finding them till 10-50% lower when the market are coming apart. Ugly prospect. Maybe the markets well be broken or closed when you want to sell, and everyone may want to be liquidating with or without bids, with serious consequences to your capital health.

Looking at some stocks that exprienced that TODAY we see – air gaps -
GRA-19% 1 day loss; PPP -28% 1 day CS – 13% 1 day loss.
What happens the next trading week is anyone's guess.

Looking at some stocks that exprienced that TODAY we see – air gaps -

GRA-19% 1 day loss; PPP -28% 1 day; CS – 13% 1 day; RL – 22% 1 day loss.
What happens the next trading week is anyone's guess.
It is the kind of thing that ends friendships, when you ask your broker
Why didn't you tell me ?” with a lot of anger cause you just lost a big chunk.

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Thursday, January 21, 2016



LAST time we got a very nice signal, say Nov 5-9th, we spent about 5 or 6 market sessions in limbo before the GDX (dashed gold line) price responded fully, although individual stocks responded, some faster (AEM), some slower (AUY).
Today provisional signal is not really any different. Each panel on this chart of my proprietary measure “CARTEL~BUSTER® !, contains its own Tripwire Zones, for buying and selling. Either or both works well. Thus the bottom panel is a bit faster for shorter trades.

What will clinch it for me is how the trend turns, based on the BlueBars in the MACD Histogram (FREE CHARTS @ STOCKCHARTS)-(plug in any SYMBOL) to get a look at the bars. Daily is good, intraday tells you what time the tide is turning from Ebb Tide to Flood Tide. .
Lacking the powers of Harry Houdini, or a reliable crystal ball, I will not say how big or how long this move might be. Given the wet blanket that gets thrown over GoldBugz, who would want to say. My take is we are a tradeable bottom that will manifest itself in the next 5-10 days and could become a trading opportunity. Sign up for ASAP UPDATES & ALERTS

Friday, January 15, 2016

Don't ya want to SHORT this market like crazy/?

And get the snot knocked out us in the process?  Admittedly, the DJIA has made it's way into the 15's.   The real question is, how long before THEY decide the DOW must be back in the 17's?  I don't think they can make it happen.  Rather I think they will pump like madmen aboard a sinking ship, using MLK Day as a smokescreen, resting the market, and then a burst to 16 + some change, and then let it burn out.  That said, I have about a dozen stocks I like for shorting waiting their turn.  ETF's are good too, however, when you know its a Con Game, you got to know the game better than the CONS.  The problem with Invert ETFs is leverage, so you hold ONLY single leverage units, AND beware their may be a liquidity problem, so always be ready to exit like the wind.  Be sensitive and aware.   For that reason, some individual stocks may not experience the same thing to the same extent, hence my pick of a dozen of them.  Get them in our SHORT REPORT by signing up on our ASAP ALERT LIST.
   The bottom line can be, in a BEAR MARKET most everything is a short.
That which is not, is likey a Precious Metals stock.  We have Reco's for them.   Sign up for the RECAP REPORT and get the PRECIOUS METALS STOCKS RECO's with it.  RECAP REPORT $10/mo.  Click on the link in your Next Email from your signup.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Three letters:: GSR. 3 words: Et Tu Brute ? GSR Profit Assassin ?

Betrayed by a beloved myth of the GoldBugz community, the Gold Silver Ratio!

Seem like lawyers, gunz and money are needed to survive the scum and villany found in the markets of the Precious Metals Complex.  Now we learn the GSR has been selling us down the river as well, as tool used to subject us to the punishment of our capital resources.
There seems to be no reliable correlation btwn the movement of a Gold Stock Index and the GSR.
     This give credibility to the thought that is no force compelling any third measure has to respond in such and such a manner to another set of measures in Ratio.  Hence, whilst the GSR can vary to extremes to the up and downside of the Mean, there is no force compelling either Silver or Gold to react in a pre-conceived pattern, despite all the pumping to the contrary.
A case can be made for Mean Reversion, often accompanied by claims of substantial profits if, as and when Mean Reversion occurs. 
     Lets look a half of the previous chart:
 Nothing is any clearer.  There are times where the correlation exists in positive mode, and others that are not clear at all.   Were any of us to risk our capital on this GSR, our chances of profit would be random at best.   Were we to be Ultra Long holders, we would be stopped out virutually every time.

     What about the GSR could help us profit from movements in the Precious Metals Complex ?
   Now if your alert you see at the earliest point in the chart of the TWO RCM ETR's, Gold and Silver, that a BLUE trendline alerts you to a point where the ETF, GDX goes from Decline to Consolidation.   We see the Three Red Lines outline the Consolidation of this GSR, and when it breaks out upwards, the GDX has resumed it's decline.  In fact when this GSR gaps over the top black dotted trendline, the decline of GDX is in full swing.   These are three examples of how to use the GSR, in the issue of discovering "Trend Change".
However if you did not profit from any of those examples, GSR may be a Profit Assassin for your method of trading, unreliable at the very least, and downright dangerous when used as a sole timing guide.
    So what can you do?  My take is to use GSR as a secondary validation tool, not a primary timing or trend change measure.   Nothing "HAS" to force prices in any particular direction, especially in intervened markets.
    From what I see, the indiscriminate use of GSR exposes Gold Bug investors to uncessary risks, of holding Precious Metals Complex stocks when not justified by trends, changes or volume dynamics.  In addition to a number of GSR's I calculate, they are used in combo with at least 4 other measures before I call a Trend Modification, pause or change.   You can access the alerts of these changes by signing up on our alert list or subscribing to 
The RECAP Report or PEAK PICKS.   My ASAP ALERTS list is free of charge.