Wednesday, January 29, 2014

GOLD MINER BREADTH Oscillators -We are HERE and We got a long ways to go !!


This is a weekly chart and likely not subject to Intervention Distortion.

This is the BREADTH OSCILLATOR of the AMEX GOLD MINERS INDEX or GIMBO as I shorten it.

It measures the cumulative increase or decrease over any given 2 year period in the GDM. It is powerful and long enuf to avoid being skewed by “Painting” by the ESF or TPTB. By the move up or down of the “KNOW, SURE THING” index, which moves like an MACD, to remain symmetrical we'd have to hit +375 on the Index on the UPSIDE, to match the -375 it has reached on the downside just before the JUL 2013 Rally.


ABOVE is GIMBO daily, looking quite HOT, up in the HOT ZONES. Underneath is the GDM version of KST, MACD-LIKE, and some Speed Resistance Lines drawn in, which often offer Resistance to Correction and Reaction, thus places it may bounce off.
ABOVE is GDX with RSI, MACD & BB, all In-Gear for a continuing advance, all below danger zones. RSI is under 70 and MACD continues up. This may eventually morph into a FLAT CORRECTION, but with normal stops you will likely have  no fear here of being shaken out !!

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Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Gold Miner Breadth OScillator - what is really happening NOW

 Thought ya'll like to see it from the inside instead of in the audience as it was "behind the curtain" as we are so oft treated to, like a bunch of rubes.
   Top Panel is an MACD-like measure that is showing us the current trend.
  Second Panel down is the GDX with a 20 DMA.
  THIRD PANEL is the Oscillator itself with the Faster RED measure reaching into OverXtended territory, whilst the  Slower GREEN lags.   It some point they will cross, MEANING that the MOMENTUM within the TREND is lessening,   alerting us to the potential for change.  If you have stops in position, you should review and stick to them.
  If you scalp short term moves,  now is a good time to review that as well.
 Fourth or Bottom Panel     is the Stochastically processed graphic of the Main Panel (Breadth Oscillator) indicating the upward momentum has bumped up against its relative limit, and is not ACCELERATING any faster.  Its like your
Ford 302 or Chev 283 revved out at 6,500 RPM without a hi-lift cam, it cannot Accelerate any more, but it can hold it.
Bottom line here ?  The longer we go up,  the more we will likely see some form of correction.  There is resilience.
If you got stops, well that's why.
 The other thing to take from this, is that Momentum operates WITHIN Trends.   Continued directional changes in Momentum WITHIN Trends, can / may change the TREND but it takes time.  Momentum changes may simply be (mid-course (steering adjustments) changes). 
  Profit now, sign up, a dozen new picks waiting for YOUR PROFIT.  Good Luck DG

Monday, January 6, 2014

What you need to know RIGHT NOW


This is what you need to know here and now:

Axiomatic is that the advance is good until the MACD turns down.  CHECK. -> MACD still good.
Further, Overextended on the RSI is + 70 or so, thus with the RSI's for those four indexes in the Mid-50's, it does not dictate that this ETF is vulnerable to a heavy correction.  CHECK.   -> RSI overextended NOT. Thus this is a GOOD CHART, not showing any vulnerability to a serious correction yet.
Simply, it doesnt take a Weatherman to tell which way the wind is blowing.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Monday's action - Rally ? Corrections? 4 Producers, 2 Developers close to production.

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Monday's action??  We will be due for some " form " of pause, rest or correction.  Soon. How?  What?  When?

Since I don't forecast or predict, I say this: I figure the GDX, for example could blast up hard BOUNCE off the 50 DMA to the downside, correcting down perhaps to the area of its own 20DMA, bouncing off it to the upside into the VOID btwn the two.   IMO, the RALLY continues after some form of " pause " this week.


Friday, January 3, 2014

Working towards a Base in XAU, BPBD, and PM Complex for a further rally - 3 Story Buy Signal from BPGDM

  Hard to imagine 4 signals but here they are RSI crossing 50%(top panel).
BPGDM raw crossing 20DMA.   KST & Coppock turning up into Crossover from low.
MACD validating Coppock and KST turning up for a MACD Buy Signal as of Jan 2.

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Thursday, January 2, 2014

Breakout Chart for the Amex Gold Miner Index - as of Close 2013 New Years Eve - BAD NEWS FOR BEARS

I think this rally is just getting started and has a ways to run.  As you see it just crossed the Zero line to the upside..   This is a chart of the Advances - Declines for the AMEX Gold Miners Index, and so probably represents the 30 or so largest miners.  It can just be called a Breadth Chart for short.....Comparing it to the July rally,  I am guessing it is a First Leg.  Time will tell.