Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Unnecessary risks or "My Get Out of Jail Free Card has expired ?"

As much as I like this guy,  I am quite on edge when what he says publicly contradicts what he says publicly.  It gives the case of that terrible affliction,
COGNITIVE DISSONANCE (sic), and I toss and turn, trying to pick out what doesn't fit together right, as if a puzzle created with a hammer, jigsaw and chicken soup.  Right, it makes me lose sleep.  Something is wrong here, and the more explanations we get the wronger it gets.  Judge for yourself what Martin Armstrong has to say.  All that is here, is taken from what HE says.  I enjoy reading his works, which of course leads to my surprise as he contradicts himself, and hence my discomfort.  You decide for yourself.

Lets assume that MA is a good market analyst, and student of human behavior. I do. His work on capital flows and time cycles are excellent, with certain exceptions IMO.

Now lets go to one of his most oft repeated ( and accepted ) premises about humans.

Events repeat because human passions never change” - that's a liberal paraphrase that I think will stand.

Thus, if his writings are true, they will adhere to his logic and principles or be subject to being thought false.

Human passions include, Greed, Ego, and Control, three of which we focus upon as we examine the current situation.

Note: Not all bulls must be wiped out to start a Bull market. Just the ones with effective demand, less than effective supply.

The BOYZ by Armstrong's concept, are in the biz to PROFIT, i.e. From GREED, so we see that human passion as a constant.

DIRECT QUOTE:”The Club are in this game for the quick fast buck – not for systemic manipulation.
Thus if GREED were a constant in say, manipulating Gold Paper Contracts, imagine one of the Anointed Fund Managers, in Gold, liquidating it, saying “Wow I was able to dump all my contracts AT ONCE, and lowered my realized return 12% by selling in a bunch into that Illiquidity at midnite !” I took it down so hard I broke EVERY BID so I could not make a dime. Wasn't that GREAT ? ?!?!” Please give me a break here. Do we think for a minute a profit-seeking manager would do that? Especially if they were liquidating to save their bacon...NO.

DIRECT QUOTE: Talking directly with real sources, it has been liquidation. Really ?
DIRECT QUOTE:”You simply MUST break the back of sentiment to reverse a trend be it up or down.
Wow – does anyone NOT think the Back of the Sentiment concerning Gold NOT been broken ALREADY ? Again, REALLY ??

EGO – hardly likely that MA is playing in these markets, but he is the one with the EGO on the line, so lets cross that one off for now.

CONTROL – well by process of elimination, this becomes a prime candidate. Who would want to control the Gold Paper price and make it appear less likely >? Quo Bono, or who profits from this ? A secondary question is whom is big enough to marshal enough capital or margin to make these sales.

Note: That physical demand in Asia is strong is irrelevant?

Note: If it were the CLUB with its myriad members, its likely they WOULD blow up, but if there is only ONE ACTOR and one member, its as likely NOT, IMO.

On one hand, MA suggests that without the Paper Gold Market there would be no liquidity, and the next moment suggests that “Normal Liquidations” occur at midnite with no one trading on the Paper Gold Market, so then I have to ask, where's the liquidity, and laugh as you will, but have you ever heard of e-Bay. Would someone try something like that the merchants would be cleaned OUT instantly.

DIRECT QUOTE: “From a price perspective,so far there is no indication that gold is entering a long-term bear market. We should confine the decline to 3 years max and the sharp price drop we just saw is VERY GOOD because we want to see it thrust down to achieve that decline within the short time frame. This is always about price and time. So if we can see gold break the 1,000 level in 2014, we have a reasonable shot at this being finished. If we do not see that price level, then yes, we could see it drag on for 5 years total. “ THIS is from a guy that called for $5,000 Gold BEFORE he got out of prison ON Parole, based on the same research he is using now.

So lets now look at the evidence, although incomplete, and circumstantial, and see if it worth bothering with,

Pre-Release, MA predicts “$5K gold. Post-Release – predicts Gold must go under $1K to set up the next bull move.

MA says human passions for profit never change.

MA then says, funds are the ones liquidating gold.
What fund would have such an interest in liquidating that much gold in poor trades?
What fund has the resources to margin that much gold?
What fund would NOT be prosecuted for manipulation of this sort?

MA then says, its normal for a fund manager to limit or lessen his profit by selling the worst possible quantity at the worst possible time.
WHOA is that contradiction?
MA says The Club or The Boyz are only in this for a quick profit. OK so which idea is right here? Either they are in it for profit, or is it NOT THEM but someone else?

MA says that we must break the back of the Bull sentiment in Gold.
Really, its not done yet? REALLY ?

Really Martin? I think you are doing such a bad job of covering up what, IMO, is the action of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, that if beating up gold was a condition of your parole, your take risks, as what you say makes no sense.