Tuesday, March 26, 2013

ARE WE THERE YET ? What Have We Here ?


  Lets take a quick look at two landmarks we can use to tell us where we are:

      ALL THINGS CONSIDERED the markings and data on the HUI, Gold Miners SHORT TERM CHART, shows us at a small correcting TOP as of this week, within which we can go back and bounce off the Bottom from the First week in March, according to projections based MACD.  It also is clear that the S1 Pivot, may be part of the area it reverses from. That low would be 337.29
and that S1 Pivot is located nicely positioned @ 338.29, how nice.

    Some of my other BREAK-OUT pointers look at the First Week in April.  Based on an about 3.5 week rally, it would not be surprising to see it take half that time to correct, thus the First Week in April is where I would look fo another rally.

    Now all this means NOTHING, if the LONG TERM is not reversing to the UPSIDE, so lets LOOK:

      This 3.5 year chart, weekly of the $HUI, looking like a LONG TERM BOTTOM   shows it wishing to reverse to the upside, soooo, I am not buying into the short term TOP we saw, as I called buying in the First week in March and that was good.  Now, following the same pattern, I would say a good Long and Short Term buy will come to us in the First week in April.  That said, we will observe and see what, if anything changes..........

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Red-Green head fake

As the markets [ DJI & such ] move, the higher they go the more suspect they become, as the volume drops as it should rise.   Above we see what the great numbers of stock are doing, so it loos as if we have already had one head fake in Feb, as the Red-Green line leads.


   Look at the volume, shrinking as the price goes  up, just backwards. WHY?

Typically, stock can be drawn higher futures and options taken on other exchanges to drive them  higher, more easily than could be done buying them outright on the Major Exchanges, teasing them, pushing them, leading them higher in uneconomic transactions, that have the Averages then adjust to the higher futures bids.    So in fashion of Due Diligence,  you ask Qui Bono? or
WHO PROFITS.  I cannot say without qualification but I can say, who can afford uneconomic transactions on a running basis as if they could print money to make good their losses?  Maybe they can if after you strip away all the straw men, stalking horses and intermediaries, it comes up an outfit with an alphabet for a name. Your money, your due diligence.

    Below is a chart a bit more classic in the relationship of volume to price movement which shows us one other thing, the deflation in commodities prices it tracks, is over, and at a bottom....... notice price drops AND volume drops, and the reverse holds true as well.  EVen tho LSC is soft commodities, it is directionally positively in correlation with the $CCI [ Constant Commodity Index][ the one Goldman Sachs re-jiggered the year of the great oil run][this being the Original, the one they changed is $CRB], and Copper, and Silver and the Copper Miner Etf, the Silver Miner ETF and so on.
    Now that the European Central Bank, and the New Zealand Reserve Bank think it OK to make DEPOSITORS pay for bailouts, makes you want to keep your money under the mattress and for sure think twice about LEAVING it in a BANK, other than for a transaction account where the money just visits, never stays, kinda like "Just Visiting" in the Monopoly Game Jail.

    So looking at purchasing power stablity, over time, how does holding something over than paper or bank receipts compare:  20 yrs here, $gold vs prices we pay for "stuff".

    Except for that big ramp in 2011 it looks good for 2.5 yrs, now lets drop to 20 yrs.


   So now from '93 to '09, pretty much a 12 yr picture of relative stability.
Then it ramps due to crazy considerations but  you still got your purchasing power.  It may change and when it does, those who use this route, GOLD, will change their tactics too.

   No point in wondering what we do, sign up for a free month, and see. No downside for you, unlike banks.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

WYSIWYG - 30 charts of my Semi-Finalists 3/7




You get to pick the ones you like.   I bet that the 1-2-3 or 4 I pick will have very HOT MACD's so use your best judgement here.  To see them in greater detail with the MACD's embedded in the chart, CONTROL & RIGHT CLICK, and the expanded chart will come up for you

MACD important HERE<   Our 30 Semifinialists for this week.


If you think we are not at a FOUR year Bottom, take a look at the sentiment, btwn Gold & Junk Bonds, below:



I think Sentiment-Wise a very good case can be made for OVERDONE BEARISH SENTIMENT RE: MONETARY METALS.

  Only time will tell if you are your own worse enemy or not.  You don't have to do this alone,  SIGN UP, get a FREE Month, and Objective TA Opinions.
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Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Is it safe yet ? " Remember Marathon Man" ?


  Yes Dr. Mengele asked Dustin Hoffman that question it seemed like hundreds of times.

  Thus after Gartman, CNBC, the MSN, FORBES, and a whole laundry list of entities trying to scare you out of your liver, and make you dump your GOLD and GOLD STOCKS, you either DUMP them and let them fall into stronger hands, or you stand fast with or without more dry powder.  Lets take a look:


   This is the Canadian Venture Index, generally the most speculative about, filled with Junior Resource Companies, and hence very sensitive as a lead item.
        LOOK at the Top Panel.  That is a weighted measure called VORTEX, and its 6 day moving average.  IT HAS Broken out to the upside.  POSITIVE !

        MIDDLE PANEL :  Price with its PIVOT notations, based on Hi, Lo & Close for the week.  It has Bottomed at S1 (Red Arrow).  POSITIVE.

        Bollinger Bands - price has stopped at Bottom margin  (Orange Arrow), and that intersects with the S1 Pivot ( support )  Thus SUPPORT + SUPPORT, thus POSITIVE.

        GREEN ARROW.  5,9 TRIX or Triple Smoothed Oscillator, which has given us a short term breakout to the UPSIDE.( Short Term Trend Measure)  POSITIVE.

       BOTTOM PANEL:  True Strength Index, similar to MACD, about to create an upside cross over but not as yet.  NEUTRAL.


          POINT & FIGURE Chart used to cut down on "NOISE" or non-meaningful notations.

         DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE OF 1088.96, virtually Achieved. Thus this chart is in NEUTRAL POSITION.

So after the THREE Major Gold Stock Indexes, XAU, HUI & GDM had large and significant bullish moves today, AS WELL as satisfying all downside objectives,  Do you think GARTMAN, FORBES, CNBC and all the other Talking Heads, Spewing Guru's and Media FLAks will tell  you to buy NOW?   NOT !

      WHAT TO DO NOW?  Probably you can enter the Precious Metal stock you like. Probably.  You can Sign up for a PEAK PICKS SPECIAL including 1 FREE Mo. RIGHT HERE from our NOV 33.97 Special.

       Whether you subscirbe or not, you may want to consider setting some limit orders UNDER the MARKET, lower and / or substantially lower, as a direct challenge should we get a SALVO of "5 RULE" Smackdowns this week.

     All subscriptions come with a once-a-month Email consultation privilege so you can email me directly @ "denaliguide1@gmail.com", for suggestions.

 A number of correspondents are using SIL, GG & SLW as general selections.
    I like them on a general basis, but have about a dozen different selections that are a bit more diversified in both field, scope and volatility.  Sign up for
PEAK PICKS and you will get our Special BREAK-OUT REPORT.

    

Monday, March 4, 2013

Panic & Fear // Happiness & Euphoria

WHAT ARE YOU FEELING  ?  

 Gartman depressing you? 
  
Maunde got you panic'd?

Main Stream Media filling you with fear ?

Spewing Guru's got you in "Flight Mode"?

Talking Heads & CNBC got you dazed and confused?

  
     What have any of these in common ? 
  
                      and

     What have they to gain from this chaos? 

Quo Bono, Latin for "who profits?"

  WHAT DO YOU DO ? 
 WHAT CAN YOU DO ?

   for the exact information, I refer you to the guy who has Been there,

Done that, and can Name Names.

  Lets be clear.  This guy gives me exactly the same he gives you, his site,
his experience, and his information ( probably not all of it, LOL)

     JIM SINCLAIR's JSMineSet

If you don't want to go there, OK, his advice is this: DO NOTHING but hold onto your PM's and PM stocks, assuming your not on margin or any other form of debt.  PERIOD.

     There are several other figures that are in headlines today, who I discuss in my Letter, Peak Picks, but I do not wish to discuss here.

Of the thousands of charts I could show, I think the following the most relevant to the instant situation at hand.

  When one of those little balloons breaks, Green, Yellow or Blue, from being punctured by the measures on their left and below, it will be time to look for real changes in the Commodities including the PM Complex.


GUESTBOOK