Thursday, February 23, 2012

As intent as I watch the general market, this development in silver has my

attention, and here is why:

The current silver advance may be fought over at 35, but of course the hidden item is that the derivative contracts are supposed to have a "Poison Pill" clause ( according to WB sources, formerly of JPM) that considerably "poison the soup" if the silver price stays above 36 for 60 days.   Lets just forget about that for a moment, and look at the "GOAL LINE"  on this regression chart.  The middle line is essentially a moving pivot that divides weakness from strength, and this is a LT Chart, 3 yrs.  On the shorter charts, 3 mo, 6 mo & 1 yr,  the price ( even COMEX at that) has surmounted the middle line and moved into strength.  NOW it remains to be seen if the price will leap over that middle line anytime before Jun 30 (arbitrary date).  My numbers say Silver can bounce off the ceiling at 37.5, 40.0 or 42.5, without RADICALLY changing the trend we are now stuck with.  What will RADICALLY alter the balance is the Silver price VAULTING over that blue line, because that then, from a statistical point of view, suggests that SILVER is then going to Touch the Top Line before the TREND has a chance to re-set its Equilibrium.  It seems to me from my crude attempts to measure that top level that it would be btwn 70 & 90 U$D, again my guess  at this point.  Its a guess, but an educated guess, IMO.