Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Ask yourself, does it look like a top or a bottom........do you need a hint?

Like the concept of Negative Interest, this is getting disturbing as the 10 Yr Treas has gone under 1.9%, as i t has on all Crises dates.  WE go Davos, We got the Greek Settlement, we got the ISDA deciding WHETHER the GREEK deal is a DEFAULT.  No stability here, I think.  Maybe a minor patch, but the Ship of the Global Economy has its PUMPS working overtime, and any pause in the pumping will sink the COSTA CONCORDIA -> global economy even lower in the water = worrisome.


Below is a depiction of the Momentum of the ADVANCES and DECLINES by MR. NASTI, which reflects the entire Nasdaq markets movement, rather a broad take which gives us direction.  This one bothers me as it shows the WIDTH and BREADTH of that that Market's advances slowing and heeling over, top heavy.  I make NO predictions other than to say, this has been my most reliable indicator over the last say 15 yrs.
So you may take it for what its worth..........

                Lastly below, is a chart that is easily re-produced, and has 3 components, one of Trend, one of Momentum Within the Trend, and one of Volume.  The MACD is as well a trend and timing indicator, so I include it for for your interest..........Here I use the Wilshire 5000 as it is very broad, and weighted as well, so I think a good reflection of what is actually happening in a Co-Incident Timing ( right up-to the moment).
I use it to determine relative position, not to predict, although position is important to attempt to guess at what is next.........

Its About Time someone said it, without burying it. Bill Gross buried it so here

it is, taken from PIMCO's Feb Outlook published today, as I see it:



The King of Bonds, IMO, Bill Gross of PIMCO (so aptly named) today issued his Feburary OUTLOOK LETTER, entitled

Life – and Death Proposition
and while the very good but somewhat superficial writers at Business Insider sub-title
it for Gross's bemoaning the “end of abundance”, there is a more telling thought expressed about three “run-on” sentences from the end of the article, buried as it were.

Apparently it is only an after thought to the writer and editor of this “OUTLOOK” as they are “talking their book”, Bonds. To us, perhaps in a more balanced or not stance, it looks as if it is saying what many of us have been saying since this long slide started back in the '60's. I quote his (Bill Gross), and bold it, leaving it exactly as it appeared going out to his poss : “Developed economies where these low yields reside may suffer accordingly. It may as well, induce inflationary distortions that give a rise to commodities and gold as store of value alternatives when there is little value left in paper. “ The italics and underline are mine.
Now the “IT” he refers to his here: “Where else can one go, however? We can’t put $100 trillion of credit in a system-wide mattress, can we? Of course not, but we can move in that direction by delevering and refusing to extend maturities and duration. “ This is where he is discussing the lack of viable investment options if a T-Bond is locked down at a yield of 5 basis points. I think the POINT is made.

Observers pointed out, that removing gold, would have severe consequences. Now that is acknowledged by no less than the KING of Bonds, and yet it is still buried. IMO this is worse than a sick patient getting a “Smoke & Mirrors” diagnosis of an ailment killing him, and the doctor refusing to reveal the cause, even when there is a cure. Sad and dangerous, to everyone on this Planet Earth.

SHOUT THIS FROM THE ROOFTOPS, DONT HIDE IT. GIVE PEOPLE CREDIT FOR UNDERSTANDING. IT IS NOT FOR THE ELITE, THE 1% TO KNOW AND OTHERS BE KEPT IN DARKNESS AND BONDAGE. PEOPLE KNOW INSTINCTIVELY. IT IS JUST ABOUT TIME ! !

GUESTBOOK