Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Does it really matter where it starts?



Does it really matter where it starts?
Greek Isles, small towns in Michigan, or a big one in Rhode Island. Who is next?
Wind power & water power in Scandinavia sold forward to invest in SAFE, now defunct bonds.... so now everyone has a power shortage in those towns. Gee who helped them into such a great deal? Yes Guess WHO, not the rock band either.
Bottom line similarity for each ? We did a deal with one of the VAMP SQUID's tenacles for secured financing. Guess what ? They are all now securely in the Squids tenacles. In each case the deal had unintended consequences to the BORROWERS.

Lets review:
If these CDS products DON'T pay off, there will be NO further market for CDS products. If these CDS products pay off, the Banks will suffer. If these CDS products DONT pay off, their buyers will suffer.

When an event is so large, it cannot be insured against, witness the nuclear industry. No one can sue them nor can they get insurance. Think of it ?

IDSA has always avoided calling a Credit Event a default, I think their info is a smoke screen to beguile everyone.

MF GLOBAL went BK because they could not collect on the CDS. How many other entities will go BK when IDSA declares the Greek Settlement NOT DEFAULT?

THE SQUID is buying Gold Royalty Companies and gold stocks, HMMM ?

WHY Now ? DAVOS & GREEK Settlement are NOW.

There are many, many previous cases of foreign powers confiscating local assets until debt was repaid. In this case the EU is discussing sending “Financial Inspectors” in to make sure VAT is paid, and in the USA, citizen political control is terminated and replace by “FISCAL MGMT” firms. Hmm, how do you spell
DISASTER ! ? !

Does your town have a deal with the SQUID or its relations ??
      Are the Inspectors coming to your town ?

My take on Jim Sinclair's information on the Derivatives Assn's decision

upcoming  this week on whether to declare a default on the part of GREECE.  If they declare a default the  5 largest US banks, who wrote 97% of the CDS's insuring this debt, will be openly insolvent.

If the Assn declares NO DEFAULT, those who attempted to insure their positions will be exposed.

what I got is this:  If ISDA declares that an xx% haircut is NOT a default, the 5 US Banks that issued the CDS's to debt holders will skip away from THIS haircut scott free FOR NOW.  Meanwhile the brokerages and others that have bought the GREEK Sovereign Debt and hedged their downside risk to create a lo-risk trade will now be exposed to bankruptcy and ruin for they will have NO insurance and no recourse.   TRANSLATED =  lotsa people gonna go belly up when / if ISDA declares NO DEFAULT.  Bank issuers of CDS on this deal, will have dodged the bullet and cheated death this time.
 
Remember when MF GLOBAL flamed out, like a month before the markets cratered, as selling commenced.....hmm
 
Jim said this NO DEFAULT POSITION would be Bad for the Dollar, Good for Equities and Good for Gold, and I would add, once it runs its course of bankrupting a whole bunch of people BECAUSE, that admission of a HAIRCUT will mean destruction of liquidity and debt based money, and to that extent and MORE some form of QE will be used to replace that and patch the obvious holes in this ships hull.  So what I'd possibly see is another Crater leading up to a fallout like Early October, and once the bankruptcy silliness is over, then a huge rally like from Oct to NOW.
 
Bottom line:  Protect ALL your capital for there is an ill wind blowing right now and mischief is afoot.........

Sunday, January 29, 2012

SELL SIGNAL

 right now, in reply to my BUY signal of Dec 16, this is a reply,  I like a SELL here on all non-PM stocks, straight out or simply a stop tightened to NO Looser than 3%, and an alert on MONETARY METAL MINER STOCKS, because a great number of my measures, are poised on the edge of  cliff and the pre-market measures  are going south in a bad way, and Asia is opening down in a significant manner.  Take care to avoid all hazards including those with agenda's, and PROTECT ALL YOU CAPITAL.
 
The Strong Sell Designation is for all NON-PM Stock.   AS to PM stocks, a tightly set stop will do.......!!!!

IF a strong downdraft DOES NOT materialize, no one is out of position.  Good Luck.

a

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Jackals.............

THE REAL DEAL

No mirages, no chimeras, no hallucinations. This is the here and now most dangerous situation you face. As Napoleon is attributed to have uttered: (para) “The most dangerous time is AFTER the War has been won.” Now do we not feel elated that the FED has stated its avowed intent to hold the Zero Interest Rate Policy ( ZIRP )? Are we not feed up the the “GREECE Exhaustion Syndrome” - Athens is not in flames, and the rioters are home, and quiet. OK, we are safe. OR Are we ?

I would suggest, that as Napoleon observed, the greatest danger looks to be when we think we are clear of impediments and obstacles, is the most dangerous time. What are the dangers ? Bears ? Lions ? Tigers ? No, ladies and gentlemen, even more dangerous than the Financial Black Plague of the early 21st Century, are the JACKALS. Yes the Jackals. Owners of the Derivatives. How about a preview of the Ultimate Derivative Disaster of 2011?
To show you this I only need refer you to any customer of MF GLOBAL, to show you what even a pinprick of this weapon can do. Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction. Why ?
How ? Stealthily, when the US Congress changed the bankruptcy laws, there included a change allowing the Creditor to go directly to the Collateral of the debtor held in their custody regardless of the chain of title, somewhat the reverse of the “Slice & Dice” Mortgage Stew created in MERS. So now, my funds, segregated or otherwise held in the custody of a derivative issuing entity, can be directly seized as collateral – let me repeat “ DIRECTLY SEIZED AS COLLATERAL”. That means they got it, you don't, and you got NO RECOURSE !

Does that nail it down for you ? Whatever NOT in your physical possession can be seized as collateral if the entity you have it upon deposit with, has issued a derivative of that nature. You lose. Maybe you will take legal action. Maybe you won't. It will be a long time before its resolved. I doubt waiting will help much, as you will want, and may need that money NOW.

Do NOT depend upon verbal assurances unless you get hostages, and then only ones that will be reclaimed. Find organizations that do NOT endanger your assets, or keep them in places that do not run this risk.

I have a list of a “Bakers Dozen” of really hot, Hi-Energy Relative Strength stocks I could give you. What good would it do, to double your money in this next mean-time only to have it disappear in a MF GLOBAL like fiasco ?

Sure if you subscribe we can rock 'n roll throughout all the ups and downs, but will you watch your money go up in “smoke”? Best be safe in some physical item, if you can't find a way to keep your “entrusted” money safe, then don't entrust it to anyone but yourself.

Radical idea, heh? Trust yourself and no one else until proved otherwise? I think its a good idea.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

What a difference a day makes ! ! !


Wow ehh?  Who woulda thought that 6 weeks after the Dec 12 cross-over( usually a calendar quarter, but hey its an election year so everything is possible with every-one pumping......) of the rate that the world was consuming Short Term Treasury Notes ( less than 1 yr)(chart is upside down), that the RISK appetite started galloping.   Funny, when everyone is so depressed, no  one wants to believe anything good.  Good ?  Well, it might be, for now we have the US in recovery, the CRASH in the Euro post-poned and everything looks rosy, well sorta.......  Now it usually takes One Calendar Quarter for the changes to show up, but everyone was in a hurry this year as the Monsters are both big (US Election) and fast (Euro-Crash).   These monsters are not dead, not by a darned long shot, but right now, are temporarily at bay.  For Now !!
  
          Is it a trap  ? ?  Yes it is in the long term sense that if you find yourself lulled into a false sense of security that "Everything is OK", you will eventually get hurt very badly.  If you use this to take trading profits, you will be fine......Yes, Virgina, we still got a problem - Houston,  you listening  ? ?

Monday, January 23, 2012

The EURO-Wars, what happens in the end, regardless

Shooting war or otherwise over the Euro, the essential End-Up here is that everyone gets ripped off.

Sounds very simple doesn't it.   Read the fine print in the derivatives and it gives the creditor the right to seize the underlying collateral without any proceeds.  Sound like a "Confession of Judgement Clause" ? It should because it is the same as.  So when this is all said and done, it will end up that a majority of the currently productive assets on this planet will be concentrated in fewer yet hands.........Alarming, outrageous and disgusting, and the other 99.999% will struggle harder than before, perhaps to that ill-defined but finite limit where things turn over.

That's IT in as simple terms as we can muster.  We are ALL Argentina + Greece + Libya.  Read media from outside your country, read in between the lines.

IMO, my take is that this silly large cast production of getting the 30+ countries to agree in the Euro-Remediation process, is simply a stage show, compared to what is going on in the real world.  From what I read, of people a lot smarter than me, combined with common sense, with or without war, this is what is likely happen.

A.  The Euro Zone will continue to exist as a Free-Trade Zone, and countries taking part in it, may or may not have the Euro, or just may trade in their local currency.

B.  Creditors will take "haircuts" or losses on their lending from 20% to 80%, and see new debt with lots longer dates swapped for old debt.  They will do this in preference to triggering CDS's, which will happen but on a local, not global scale.  Should CDS's be triggered across the board on  a Global scale all bets are off.

C.  Supra-National organizations like the EU will lose the ability to dictate to member states and trading partners.

It is probably going to take the specter of a living hell, THAT IS WAR, to make the EU &  the other (30+) actors accept that fact that :

"A GOOD PLAN NOW IS BETTER THAN A PERFECT PLAN AT SOME INDEFINITE TIME IN THE FUTURE"

An old woman  in Germany who had been thru WWII with her husband, a former SS Sgt. ( on the Eastern Front, of course, and whom survived it)  told me how bad it had been for her, and I hope there are elders and seniors amongst us all to give us that sage advice, that war is NOT an option.

Lastly, Hope is NOT a strategy and it will take commitment and nerve to get through this.  Also its IS GOING TO HURT.  To survive we have to get over the NANNY STATE idea that no one gets hurt. NO CAN DO !

Please note, Minefinders has a $15 offer on the table from PAAS.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

A DIRTY WORD - a good reason for NIMBY, but is it too late?



AUSTERITY”
Seems like that is a word we hear in the far-off distance, from the politicians and talking heads, but does not relate to our daily lives, ......so much, ..........yet

Such a nice clean but mean sounding word, yet it is a lot dirtier than one first thinks.

AUSTERITY = not a nice clean word for saving money but a description of your life going down the toilet, for reasons beyond your control:




Middle-aged people who thought they would be unemployed for a few months have realised that they were, in fact, forcibly retired ! SACKED in other words, never to realize anything remotely approaching what they once had.

We so often hear this word bandied about without any comprehension of what it really means. I mean, hear is a very sterile definition of the word:

In economics, austerity is a policy of deficit-cutting, lower spending, and a
reduction in the amount of benefits and public services provided.”
Gee that doesn't sound too bad, not really awful, at least not yet.
As good as the definitions are, I think the Synonyms are more illuminating -> : Synonyms: severe, authoritarian, flinty, hard, harsh, heavy-handed, ramrod, rigid, rigorous, stern, strict, tough.
So logically, when austerity is present and a policy in YOUR country, that is what you can expect.
Hmm, not a darned thing in that seems very appealing at least, not IMO.
TERRAIN & SITUATION REPORT
Date: 1991, Situation: Russian Financial Crises,
Terrain: public dump, refuse facility, St. Petersberg, Russia
Scene: Middle Class persons, combing the dump for usable, recyclable stuff because
their jobs had “disappeared” with the “Russian Financial Crises”.(not these pictures)
Mercifully the TV clip accompanying this news story only appeared once, and it was quite heart rendering. Seeing the Russian People humiliated was quite shocking for me.
NOTE: this is why politico's carefully censor pictures that appear, for they move the otherwise unaware public, and cause honest reactions, pre-empting the craven and crass political decisions otherwise made in the dark without public input.
Wasn't it right about then that ad's for “Beautiful Russian Woman Want to meet you.” began appearing all over the media ? Gee, what a coincidence that now, many sought a better life OUTSIDE Russia?
TERRAIN & SITUATION REPORT
DATE: 1980's to NOW SITUATION: Peace Corp Leaves Honduas
Terrain: Tegucigalpa, Sipile neighborhood Subtext: Poverty in Meso-America
Reality: Financial impoverishment of this country has led to a ramp-up of violence.

Men sleeping in street in Tegucigalpa, Sipile neighborhood, Honduras.
Men sleep in the street for lack of any other accomodations. These could as well have been murder victims in the endless drug wars, the drug trade being the most viable economic alternative available to the former working class.




TERRAIN & SITUATION REPORT
DATE: Jan 12, 2012 Situation: Greek Financial Crises
Terrain: Cities in Greece Subtext: Greeks have ruined their own finances
Reality: Greek politicians aided by Western Financiers falsified their qualifications to
enter the European Common Market, and hence , failed.



Children abandoned by Greek parents as cuts also sees country running out of medicine
  • Youngsters abandoned as parents struggle
  • 4-year-old found clutching note: 'I can't afford her'
  • Country also running out of medicine
  • Aspirin stocks low as austerity measures bite
By Lee Moran
Last updated at 4:08 PM on 16th January 2012

BOTTOM LINE: What happens in GREECE won't stay in GREECE!
SO what is your reality going to be:
1/ When your youngest has a fever and needs asprin ? ;
2/ When your unemployed for over 26 weeks and no job prospects ? ;
3/ You Find you can't make payments on a place to live ?
WHAT WILL YOU DO ? NOW ? LATER ? Too later ?
I KNOW IT CANT HAPPEN HERE, BECAUSE IT ALREADY DIDNT HAPPEN TO ME, AT LEAST NOT #1. Numbers 2 & 3, yes it has happened. It was resolved, but it was not fun.

I think that some reduction, some pain, some sacrifice CAN NO LONGER BE AVOIDED.
OK that said, are we all “scared to death” ? NO, probably but we ought be concerned some !

IMO, politicians who tell you it's not going to be too bad, are in fact LYING to you to “chill you out” and get your vote. A politican who TELLS you it will require real pain and real sacrifice and asks your participation in these decisions, may, in-fact be the one you have to trust with this future. Without these changes, IMO there is little future except misery at the hands of the VampSquid and its money-changer accomplices.
YOU HAVE THE POWER TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.
IMO, the ONLY answer is RP 2012

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

A few points to keep in mind

The financial markets are in transition.  as they change, they are hard to gauge as the players and their motivations change.  Further there becomes a strange hybridizaton as a lot of the trading moves off established markets into areas not easily monitored as are stock quotes, so some of the results look different and old patterns do not easily match what we see.

Writing has slowed as I pondered the results, long term, of economic retrenchment are not often clearly printed in the American press, for the reasons that their content is, in-fact, censored by prior restraint of editors afraid to disturb what they think the "Status Quo" wants.  This article in the Guardian demonstrates this very clearly and articulately tells the story many Americans have experienced but not been able to put into words as well as this article does...LINK to UK Guardian article............. the phrase that hit home with me was the subtitle to a picture    -->>   "Middle-aged people who thought they would be unemployed for a few months have realised that they were, in fact, forcibly retired.", that in-fact they had been SACKED  and had only the faintest hopes of regaining any of their former economic status.  Most white collar Americans don't yet know how to accept the fact of being SACKED, a lesson so well already learned by their blue collar counter-parts.  More of concern is how the political establishment will attempt to demonize these displaced workers, which OCCUPY WALL STREET so forcibly called attention down upon, while spotlighting the Elite who in fact are at the bottom of this ( the Vamp Squid typles seeking their bonuses from "Riskless Trades").

I was ALMOST shocked to see the "dithering about" so oft referred to as Europe seemed paralyzed by a crises that was and is still sucking them into the vortex leading to the BLACK HOLE of Global Financial Systematic Failure.  I used to think American politicians were the most crass and foolish, but I see they are in fact, miles behind their European counterparts...........  So as I see this next step down in Financial Cyclical Behavior ( cycle chart published early).  I sincerely think that this next bottom will be the signal of impending Greek default and a shock for the Euro, from which the markets will robustly rally, realizing they are in and have been in the ABYSS since October 2 which is when I think the bottom of a serious rally  was made.


    I see the drop in the Liquidity within LQD to be a good indicator of the tidal flow of funds into and out of the markets.  The two black lines represent the movement of the Ratio Adjusted Summation Index of Advances minus Declines to date, which seem to lag the flow-of-funds by about two weeks ( we use 10 days on the daily data).

Given that I am making sure I have some buying power at the (GREEK DEFAULT ANTICIPATION BOTTOM).

Friday, January 13, 2012

What you need to know

The most sensitive of the markets is showing a potential cross-over to the downside.  WHAT IS IN YOUR WALLET Folks?

    Betcha this next cycle takes us back to support.   Subscribe if you want to see where that is.........

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Iron Triangle of GOLD guy publishes

here is an article by a guy I follow.  I observe, not worship this guy, and so it fits with the market cycle chart I published last week.  I dont know when to or what to look for in a BLACK SWAN, but I am sure there is a gaggle of them out there somewhere

ARTICLE

New PPP ( Peak Picks) picks posted to live update sites

password changed as well.

Market cycle will be completing next week.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Ron Paul, "dangerous to the Status Quo" strong 2nd in New Hampshire

well you all heard the news.  RP exits the New Hampshire Primary with 24% of the vote, followed by the next three totalling 36%, so when whichever of them gets knocked out in South Carolina, Paul will take 1st place.

I think the status quo has a problem.

Monday, January 9, 2012

The tides that guide us, flow by, as we try to recognize the turning points

and this chart below,while not perfect, gives an idea where things can go, at least in the short run or for the next repetition of each cycle. Its not rocket science, but it is work.......
We dont have to be concerned what anyone but ourselves would do when faced with this.  What is your move?  Two cycles are illustrated playing off each other here.  There are more but for the simplest approach, these two cycles inter-mesh for me, giving me a plausible "work-out" to this cluster of cycles.......

some sayings sound like "THIS IS A GOOD DAY TO DIE, if one must"

and I say, this is a good day to try.   Read Maudlin's article today, and excerpted it and added some of my stuff, and I think its about as good as it gets, at least simply put to say where we are, where we are going and how we might try to steer this.  Good Luck.

DG


The DEBT SUPER CYCLE IS NOT GOING AWAY, BUT RATHER COMING TO THE END OF ITS ROTATION, and likely going out with a BIG BANG !!

The politico's and their lapdog economist and statistical manipulators try to shower us with nice facts and tell us its going to be OK, and wont hurt.......Did anyone ever lie when they said “THIS WON't HURT” ?
We run the T-charts and they show that the Euro-Markets are showing us at the edge of the cliff of Catastrophic System Failure, orders of magnitude later than the previous LEHMAN crises.
Like baking a cake we cannot go back to an earlier stage of this deal. We may have to “VOLCKER” our way out, to try to recycle and thus reset to an earlier stage.
As in the “29th DAY” and the BANG MOMENT by Cochrane, we can recognize the exact instant confidence is lost. That is the moment a HyperInflation begins. We can recognize it but not pinpoint it in advance.
At that BANG MOMENT, even for the USA, the math does not work.
If massive currency is printed, the true value of all that in circulation, falls, as confidence drains faster than providing new currency and credit can shore it up.
Out of the 200+ times this happened historically and globally it was NEVER DIFFERENT. Canada, Sweden, Argentina. No the last one may not surprise you, and in fact they are still the “walking wounded” but Canada and Sweden got it together, “VOLCKERED IT UP” and emerged in one piece. Not unscathed, for there will be PAIN from hard choices. The answer to a diabetic's problem is NOT more sugar......neither is debt a solution for a debt problem.
The governments are drunk in unlimited borrowing and now the hangover is setting in. Ironically, the private debt is the least of the problems facing us now.
WAR, the undeclared 2 decade war in Vietnam was one of the catalysts for a huge failure in US Finance policy to borrow instead of tax to run that war. Now we are in hip deep doing exactly the worst things we could do in the ROW, ala Vietnam.
While the US still has wiggle room to make some viable choices, like the “29th DAY”, time will run out before you know it........... When Banks like Unicredit and SocGen take a 40%+ haircut on their stock, you know
The fuse is lit, if only still smoldering in Europe but it WILL EXPLODE ala Lehman (TIMES) (X) Orders of magnitude into a GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEMS FAILURE.
Since they are politicians, by defination, they cannot make the right decision which is to disengage the cycle, yes War Ever, Forever Indebted and all, yes. It will be dangerous, the greatest danger when its announced, but IMO, its either that or consequences we are never prepared to endure. We have aging populations, aging industries, and to survive, they must re-invigorate. PAINFUL ? YES ! NECESSARY ? YES!
Seems to me the War Ever, Forever Indebted Cycle [WEFIC ] (this time around called the Rothschild Cycle) CYCLE must end now or we will be forced to endure the consequences for which we are NOT and NEVER could be prepared.
Our politicians act as if they are the ANOINTED, but seems that in the Christian world, at least, Psalm 72 parts 1 & 2 says this, very briefly,

GOD Decreed the ANOINTED MUST:
Insure political & economic justice
Engender Peace & Eliminate Violence
Does this sound like what the US Govt is doing?

Can you see any of the current elected leadership doing any of the above? Maybe they are not the ANOINTED they think they are........

Friday, January 6, 2012

Well yes, Happy Days are here Again ?? No, No I got it wrong its actuall

HAPPY NEW YEAR, AND MANY SAFE RETURNS.

Actually for those who have read the "Twenty-Ninth Day", you well realize the humor in the two above headings.
Volatility is in check, for the moment.   Yet mischief is afoot in the markets on the quiet days, and only realized in those days of tumult and thunder............

     Yet  we see  a very clear buy signal as the RED LINE decisively Break Out above the BLUE line in our depiction of the $CDNX exchange, rife with its junior natural resource issues............  Just a reminder that
NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED.

ZIRP - still in effect [Zero Interest Rate Policy]
GOLD - despite severe tubulence, above U$D 1,600
EUROPE - still broke, the FED Swaps  patching it for now
OIL - for whichever reason, still high, volatile
DERIVATIVES - a black swan landing at any time
TURMOIL & FOOD PRICING  ongoing issues for Planet Earth

   So far I  have not been able to resolve any of these problems for any of this planet's population and am barely able to keep ahead of it myself, so I see nothing as resolved.    True its a wonderful life, but progress is required and I see it as being both difficult and painful, like the birth of a new era might be..........

Yes I  know I have not taken my SALE Banner down off my NAV BAR (green one on top), but when I do, the FREE Issues will be 2 not 4 and the price will go to U$D 33.87.  With any luck I will change it next week.

Meanwhile, take care of business and we will meet again soon.........

GUESTBOOK