Tuesday, December 27, 2011

ARE we There yet? And if we are, "Who is afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?"

Its kinda like "WHO DO YOU TRUST".  Well truly, I trust what the market is saying to me.............. so lets look

Its certainly easy enuf to see the THREE (3) purple arrows at the  292-295 region that imply Support and in fact can form a Double if not a Triple Bottom in the Commodity Index.........
Now add in the fact that the Downside Objective for the CRB was SATISFIED by this drop to 295 or so....
So now it doesn't mean this is "cut and dried", and ALL CLEAR, but it is a start, perhaps a base..........
so again it looks more like a bottom than a top to me, FOR NOW.............lets now add something SCARY.
      Here we see a longer term (weekly) Point & Figure chart of the CRB done in an Averaged Configuration called AVERAGE TRUE RANGE, which uses the average of 20 periods as a box size for our work here.
SCARY because its next upside objective projection is for almost 603 on the CRB, more than double our current level.   So if the De-flation guys are freaking you out, just show them THIS chart.......LOL.

Now what does it mean?   We know for sure it means I know  how to use the Time "Periods"  and
"Scaling Method" on WWW.STOCKCHARTS.COM Point & Figure charts.
That's what we know for sure.   ME? What I know, in my work and in my gut ?  I "know" that deflation is a lot more temporary than the inflation we are being told is "temporary".   Any "deflation" that is real, will come at the end of this saga, not in the middle. And IMO, we are likely in the middle but beyond the point of no-return.  I think the "29th Day" in the Saga of the Lilly's in the Pond, has been reached and breached.
Soooooooo, does that look like a TOP or a Double Bottom in this Daily, year long chart of CRB ?
     Would you bet that Gold reaches $4,000 to the Upside before it reaches $700 to the Downside ?
Is that a "Sucker"  bet, or an "odds-on" Bet ?   What do you think I am betting ? ?   Better yet, sign up for the FREE 1 Mo Trial Subscription, and I'll share what I know so far......Meanwhile have a great Holiday Season.