Tuesday, June 29, 2010

WHERE CAN WE GO FROM HERE?

THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW

Let me show you; SEVENTEEN AGONIZING DOWN DAYS IN A ROW, thats where we COULD GO FROM HERE. No assurance we will, but it is possible and has precedent.








And if you go back on a weekly chart you see that Mr.Nasty bottomed out at -1600 thereabouts.

How that relates to us is fairly simple.  Today the Dow was down almost 250 by 11 AM , fairly scary stuff.

What you have is a cyclical Bear Market cycling inside a Secular or Long Term Bear Market, so when they get in gear downwards  you have a "FREAKOUT MODE", like last year.   When the Secular Bear consolidates, corrects or rests,  and the Cyclical Market hits its BULL Stride then, you find stuff like March of 2009, when picking winners was like shooting fish in a barrel.

Bottom line.  GURU's to the contrary [ arent they always ? ? ], the market can rebound here, or it can find a lower bottom, kinda like a Long Term Bottom as we have seen before.   CRASH - ah that is always possible, but with so much fiat floating flotsam  it seems like a real drop would attract cash like the "May FLASH CRASH" got an immediate rebound.

K.I.S.S.  Keeping IT Simple Stuff -  as illustrated in the new  version of the  Karate Kid with Jaden Smith and Jack Chan.   Walking into match, Jack Chan reading rules.  Kid says excited to him, "you reading rules??
You dont know rules ??"  Jack Chan turns to KID and says:  "Rules Simple.  You hit HIM, you DONT let him hit  you ! !  Was only reading points needed to score"  Focus is what I say.

Subscribe for a trial $5 before July when the rates will change.  Meanwhile good luck.

 DG

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