Tuesday, June 29, 2010

WHERE CAN WE GO FROM HERE?

THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW

Let me show you; SEVENTEEN AGONIZING DOWN DAYS IN A ROW, thats where we COULD GO FROM HERE. No assurance we will, but it is possible and has precedent.








And if you go back on a weekly chart you see that Mr.Nasty bottomed out at -1600 thereabouts.

How that relates to us is fairly simple.  Today the Dow was down almost 250 by 11 AM , fairly scary stuff.

What you have is a cyclical Bear Market cycling inside a Secular or Long Term Bear Market, so when they get in gear downwards  you have a "FREAKOUT MODE", like last year.   When the Secular Bear consolidates, corrects or rests,  and the Cyclical Market hits its BULL Stride then, you find stuff like March of 2009, when picking winners was like shooting fish in a barrel.

Bottom line.  GURU's to the contrary [ arent they always ? ? ], the market can rebound here, or it can find a lower bottom, kinda like a Long Term Bottom as we have seen before.   CRASH - ah that is always possible, but with so much fiat floating flotsam  it seems like a real drop would attract cash like the "May FLASH CRASH" got an immediate rebound.

K.I.S.S.  Keeping IT Simple Stuff -  as illustrated in the new  version of the  Karate Kid with Jaden Smith and Jack Chan.   Walking into match, Jack Chan reading rules.  Kid says excited to him, "you reading rules??
You dont know rules ??"  Jack Chan turns to KID and says:  "Rules Simple.  You hit HIM, you DONT let him hit  you ! !  Was only reading points needed to score"  Focus is what I say.

Subscribe for a trial $5 before July when the rates will change.  Meanwhile good luck.

 DG

Monday, June 28, 2010

ROLL OVER, not the movie


Wow, would I be concerned if I was not hedged ? I think you can be sure I would !

Does this mean I dont look for an upmove ? Actually I do, I lifted my short via the 3X Leveraged BEAR ETF, and I will be just as fast to put it back when this drive runs out of steam.........


I think we all could tread very lightly hereabouts.........

DG

Lets look at the same momentum indicator with different measures......

Looking at this you see, while the CCI indicator is in a low space, it still has room to run to the downside, which means, to me, two things. ONE, the pain is not over yet. TWO when it is, it will be a good cycle buying move EXCEPT should we experience a still stronger downward trending channel. As at any casino, you pay your money and take your chances.......

The previous Chart [ Mr.Nasty] was about TREND, lets look at Momentum

This one is about MOMENTUM, which is changes of acceleration inside a trend.

Low as it might have been it appears there is room to the downside.  How much, or how long it might go I DONT know, but there it is. 

Another post with different measures is included.

Here is MR.NASTY - he never lies and he takes NO Prisoners


Pretty much low as we are, Mr.NASTY is showing Down TREND In-Force.

Mr. Nasty is about TREND

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Well that was a CHAT !

lotsa chatters, some ideas, mostly hanging out.  Chuck was there as were about 10 others, from both boards, and the truth is i gotta get a better chat system.  Will post the results tomorrow, thanks all,

 Best,

 DG

CHAT TONITE 7-9 PM Eastern, bring your best Game, got to love G-20 !

The chat box will be up here for you all to sign in on, and I will be there ASAP, so we can hang out.

Whats  your choice?  Gold ?  Silver?  Inflation?  Deflation?  Energy ?  Cycles ?  Juniors ?  Producers?

Bring  your game, so we can kick it around some while having a cold one.  See  you there !

Friday, June 25, 2010

OPEN CHAT SUNDAY NITE 7-9 PM here

Got ahead of myself but we will have chat this Sunday Nite btwn 7-9 PMEastern, chat box will be up on the top of the blog.

   See you Sunday Nite.

Monday, June 21, 2010

Stocks of interest in last nights chat

were from sectors from Food to Crude, Oil Sands, Steel, Iron & Coal,  Gold, Silver, Nat Gas, Agriculture, Fertilizer and Finance.  A number of  areas including coins, physical gold and silver, coins, ETF's of all kinds, and techniques discussed made the two hours fly by.  Some of those items less frequently mentioned in mainstream dialogs were KOL, SIVR, & PHOSPHATES.

I think there was a slight consensus of who was the "GO-TO-GUY" in the PM and Mining sector, and maybe one stock we again placed in consensus plus we were able to share a trading technique or two.

Some of the stocks we covered were WTN.To, GCE.To, LIM.to, MSB, CLF, AXU, JAG, AAV, AGT, KBX, QMM, RBY, VGZ, TIV, NG, MGI, PAL, and some how I am sure we will see them again.

NOMINAL VALUE, vs. REAL VALUE


WELL the BLACK & RED LINES  are  your REAL PURCHASING POWER, arrived at by subtracting out the actual pricing of commodities [ thin black line ] you'd have to price with your nominally valued cash [ numerical value of dollars ].

   This is why watching the NUMERICAL VALUE of INVESTMENTS is dangerous.  We get left with a false sense of security, while the real VALUE PURCHASING POWER of our investments drains away without our noticing.

  Its an ugly picture but someone has to post it.  This is why your investments must beat the REAL VALUE of INFLATION, + the LOSS of TAXES by a huge margin.  This is why there is NO SUBSTITUTE for VICTORY.


  Sign up for a short term trial today while its still available.  I think you will like the results.


 Good Luck All.


 DG

Thursday, June 17, 2010

STOCK MARKET GURU's CARPET BOMB INVESTORS WITH INFO OVERLOAD

yes, Virginia, NOTHING has changed.  Today I got in my e-mail several seemingly urgent calls about a miniumum of TWO NEW BUBBLES in the investing world and how to protect myself and profit from them.
I guess we have a BUBBLE  in Bubbles now !

Let me show you above where there is NOT a current BUBBLE forming but where it is bubbling .

I guess I will pass on those two INSIDE CHANCES they were offering me to get the inside scoop on those bubbles and I will have to be stuck with my own technical work to guide me.  Yes the market will fluctuate, and yes the market will crash at times, but not when we are being told in advance that it will.  That  is what makes UNEXPECTED Events, Unexpected.  In fact it makes  you ask  yourself, can there ever be more than one black swan?

Gold, Stock Market, Guts, Guns & Guru's

Pretty catchy title dont you think ??  Something for the search engines to latch onto.

Honestly, I'd like a dime for each time this last month someone has called, or written or asked me in person,
"IS THE MARKET GOING TO CRASH ? " and then they add, "  ' cause that is what I heard someone say.'

So if your that someone, please dont stop, meanwhile here is a VIEW:

Now REMEMBER  MR. NASTY does not lie, nor does  he take any prisoners alive.

So if we have to crash it will be by jumping out a basement window at this time.

Personally I am not betting on a crash just yet.

 Likely what is crashing is any Stock Market Guru's INCOME who is not trying to scare people into action.

I am truly afraid what readers are subject to are the seemingly sensational writings, of some very rational people who realize no one is interested in what they have to say unless it is almost as intense as to be border line paranoid.   Now, I really do love conspiracy theories, and some almost make a little sense in some weird twisted ways, and make great movies.  What they dont make, are good material for any sort of "UNIFIED FIELD THEORY of INVESTING", so, sorry there, as I really do find myself hemmed in by the technicals I find in my market scans and due diligence investitgations.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Thursday, June 3, 2010

CONSTANT CONSPIRACY CONUNDRUM

Yes Virgina, people, human as they are, CONSPIRE.  The "CONSTANT CONSPIRACY"
 is about as incestuous as the NRA where all the paranoids all talk to themselves and take the commonality of opinion as proof they are right.


  I know mocking the common people as Joe n Mary 6PAK is simply an institution and also a defense mechanism against  continually examining things, and measuring them to see if they stand those tests.



Joe & Mary [ ya thats you and me ] go through life, working, living.  Also they can protect themselves by THINKING for THEMSELVES, and  interpreting what they see in their daily lives.  Kids grow, prices go up, markets fluctuate.  Thats why I have PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS.  Selections there because they have the greatest potential to reverse, and grow, or perhaps run.  Its a method and a system, K.I.S.S. that can work for you, let you ride the cycles, not fight them.   Try a trial half price subscription before it changes, and find yourself on top of the wave .  CATCH THE WAVE !!  For less than a latte you can CATCH IT !!

  There are many many many measures out there, abut few that can really WILL interpret them without serious injection of a bias one way or the other.

 Looking at all this stuff through NeW EyE's every day is probably the hardest  thing one can do and yet the most rewarding.

  Truly we live in strange, dangerous and perilous times, but do you ask yourself wherefrom comes the peril?   Read some FerFal and see what I mean.



   PIIGS, EURO, PTB, CARTEL, FRB, FRN's, are all factors reflected in and discounted  in the market movements.  Yes even markets discount manipulation, and indeed manipulation can be countered.  So much  wasted bandwidth I see  here, everyone wound up tightly, thinking channelized. 

   Once your in PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS those guys will mean a lot more and a lot less.

Try it, you'll like it better than that latte !!

GUESTBOOK