Tuesday, September 1, 2009
I just listed a link for the THREE [ 3 ] of GOLD on my sidebar, where you can go in and calculate a simple but effective little formula to evaluate the chances of gold making a run-up. Right now "COMMERCIALS" are short 211K contracts, and the bullish % of Materials stocks at 83% [ the GDM % is at 71% for those who prefer it ], the THREE PILLARS of GOLD is hobbled at a score of 4, two below what is needed for a minimum ticket into a Odds-On High Potential for a Gold Price Up-Move.
Erik at PMI had some exciting observations about gold [Link on Sidebar for PROMETHUS INSIGHTS], which portend things that may come. I mention this for a couple reasons, First of which, is that any timing here is necessarily inexact ;
second, that speculators often get all revved-up, anticipating a commodity move which may or may not happen, let alone in the time frame they expect.
I expect something is brewing, and as I watch the markets I am trying to figure a trip-wire that we can use to alert us when a move is truly triggered, that we can enter at an early stage. It might be the Gold Medal Winners on PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS, and no doubt my subscribers will get in on it early, but I will do my best to post News You Can Use, While its still news HERE!
Right now, you all are aware that a strong Yen is very bad for the Japanese Stock Market, how bad, is that the Nikkei 225 is down almost 3% at the open, as the yen strengthens. A strong dollar is also bad for the US market, but a strong yen correlates strong gold. Worse yet is the potential to have 1/ the US Dollar going up at the same as ; 2/ Gold, which can also go up ; 3/ when the US Bonds go up ;
IF there is a PANIC. Once the liquidity dump and contraction is finished, out of the debris will come the gold stocks. HOWEVER, if you got KILLED going down in flames with the PM stocks, it will be that much harder to create a profit going back up the other side, so you may want to wait for Trip-Wire-Trigger, before you pull yours. Thats my take, right here, and right now.