Thursday, July 16, 2009

Strange strange markets, or are they simply PIVOTAL?



If you want to see bewilderment or unknowningness on the part of professionals, please reference the BLOGS section, at StockCharts,



The guys at this section are puzzled why the VIX and the SPX are moving in the same direction, or noting that the COMPQ is advancing, and Mr. Nasty is moving down.

Maybe some dont want to call it for what it is. TO say that the markets are chaotic, would be accurate. Hard to keep your powder dry with the boat pitching and yawing all over the place.

Stay Aware, and Good Luck

DG



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Waaaay too much fun,dont you agree ?

lets see, who's news? BEE ? Never heard of them ! OK, EEEE ? LVS? you heard of them ! PQ, had a huge dilutive stock offering at this level and refused to go down?
MDW ? Marginal gold producer. FRG ? Up and down the scale once already, and in a trend now. NOG ? Nice trend.

Funny these guys didnt even make THE LIST. Why? either they are already deeply in their trends, or they are not close enuf to making the turn to give the greatest profit potential with the lowest loss potential.

Basically buying a stock when its price is rising, missing the beginning of the trend, reduces your potential and leverage in about the same measure as holding a security while its price declines.

Some of these outfits are in Financial Near Death Experiences, proxy fights or management changes. Look at CYD, in the process of eliminating a preferential "GOLDEN SHARE", and is showing the activity attributed to the anticipation of its elimination.

Over time, what I am noticing is that as I scan and sift, the feel of the selections changes as the rally prices alot of companies out of Reversal Mode. Typically this continues as the rally moves to a top. Typically bottoms are target-rich environments, whereas tops reduce the available supply of PICKS.





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WHOOPS - > ? here comes the GRUN WELLE ?





Or so it looks, Mr. Nasty's daily reading has come up for air, and has his head barely above water, for now.

The other image is a quick and unrefined look at the volume vs the price, and in a decidedly UN-BULLISH manner, volume is declining as price advances.

Top chart here shows the NYSE advance decline line, with a series of green dots behind it measuring manifested LIQUIDITY by two securities that are sensitive to US Treas and FED market operations which provide liquidity to the markets in varying degree.

Total up what you have here, and it is NOT a text book Bull market, more like a herd of lemmings floating on pools of liquidity, flogged onwards by fund managers, black boxes, and quant algorithms, onward across the PLAINS of COMPLACENCY towards the CLIFFS OF EUPHORIA. However, I think there will be little joy in Mudville as the Treasury continues to sell debt in the markets, this days portion, 130+ Billion.

It is as if the Treasury is sucking all the Oxygen [ cash ] out of the room, while providing SCUBA breathers to its main players to convince those looking in, that all is well..... so no one sees the Bears or the Bear markets in disguise, as they are hiding in plain sight. No that is not Grandmom's bear rug over the couch, its a BEAR masquerading as a couch...........

More........

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