Thursday, June 25, 2009

CHINA SYNDROME

Over time, the smoke and mirrors almost make you wonder how a market can manifest internal degrading and yet look so good on the surface. Just like the comments one could hear after a viewing of a deceased, "He Looked So Good", this story is just about as macabre. At a later date I will bore you with charts. For now its just a series of observations.

First, like Rome, this market is taking a very long time to fall. Falling so slowly that you almost dont see the "train wreck in slow motion".

My second observation is, that the pervasive intervention, so obvious under "W", is a bit more subtle here, as members of the NEW Team disagree with the Fed Head as to how to proceed. IMO, intervention can be seen in most all asset classes, in a seeming rotation, as triage is performed on which markets to act upon. You and I know its there, but dont bother trying to objectively prove it.

Third, the Latin for "Who Profits" pops into my head. Who has the most US Dollars and the most to loose, should the US pull a fast one, or engage in any funny business?
Would not that party be best off if they engaged an intermediary like a FUND or INSTITUTION, to acquire large positions is certain key firms, to preserve their purchasing power of their large store of excess US DOLLARS ? Spreading many dollars around equity markets while concentrating on specific firms could easily cause such a pattern of confusion as we have seen and are seeing.

Fourth, the US has a LOT of debt to sell and CANNOT afford the US Dollar to go south during its financing period, so it really doesnt want overseas DOLLAR Holders to sell the US willie-nillie whilst the financing is on-going, so anyone helping retard the fall of the Dollar is a FRIEND of some sort or another, unless control of YOUR company is passing into OTHERS Hands.

I personally think the CHINA COMMODITIES HOARD THEORY quite valid,and wonder out loud if such a mechanism is being applied to US Equity Markets.

My personal opinion is that the US Stock Market will NOT fall in an open, public and serious way, UNTIL the US Treasury is finished its debt financing for the current period, but good old MR. NASTY [ Nasdaq Summation INdex ] is ratting out the fact that capital is exfiltrating the equity markets, and such is masked by the rear guard covering fire, and dirty tricks of a massive pool of US DOLLARS exerting their influence thru covert liquidty injections, and acquisition of specific positions in specific firms.

Upon review of CNDX,TSX, AMEX, & NYSE scans for today, those are my thoughts.

CLEARLY, many of the PM stocks are smelling a rat here, but not all PM stocks are meeting scan and filter criteria. NEM, AEM, NG, and HL are a few that meet the test. Interestingly enuf, the GolDollar Index is also rising.
A comprehensive list will be posted in PEAK PERFORMANCE BLOG.

GOOD LUCK

DG



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