Sunday, May 10, 2009

Bad Moon Rising? Paper or Plastic ?

Top Panel. Trendline drawn under CCI. How long does CCI have before it MUST break DOWN thru the trendline? Thats your max timing ! ! How likely is it that it drops out of orbit this week? Gets tighter by the day, !!

Main PANEL, prices. BLUE BOX -> Note that the prices have moved above the "80" Full Stochastic Line, considered OVERBOUGHT Territory, and stayed there SIX market days.

Bottom Panel. MACD Histogram bars declining whilst the twin lines flip and flop. IMO, a precarious position.

In fact, ask yourself, "WOULD I BUY THIS FORMATION IF IT WERE UPSIDE DOWN, or REVERSED ?" If your answer is yes, that you would go long here, were this chart UPSIDE DOWN, then a prudent course would be to either be in cash or ready to go to cash or have appropriate stops in place.

I am watching the Asian Open here and the Nikkei has a .3% up without TOYOTA, which when traded was DOWN 3%. The structure is suspect. I have already made my moves, but I simply dont trust the structure. I'd like to get onboard a bull market when it comes along but this is not it yet, IMO. Maybe it will be a shallow correction. Maybe not. I know this : When its all over, I will have the cash to get back in, to whatever issues I decide relate to capital gains. Right now, my senses are humming, trying to catch the buzz.

Good Luck, and Vigilance to All,