Sunday, March 8, 2009

AND NOW A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS: KIVA.org and Now SHELTER BOX

Likely those of us who read this, have benefit of "Rule of Law", and probably Food, Clothing and Shelter for the forseeable future. Our worries and cares are, in fact, tiny when compared to those on this Planet who struggle daily for their subsistance and a safe place to live.

While we cannot readily change that, there is something we can do. As my favorite military author, B.H. Liddell-Hart, Cpt, RET. once penned, "Your objectives should be dictated by your means."

In this respect I urge you include in your giving, consideration, SHELTER BOX, Canada
[ http://www.shelterbox.ca/]. The provide temporary shelter to those suffering from
disasters such as Seismic, Fires & Floods, in places where this is no help. It is the helping hand we'd all want to have if our home burnt, if we suffered a tsunami, or if we'd been turned out of our homes by EarthQuake at the beginning of winter.
For Americans, SHELTERBOX can be accessed at: http://shelterboxusa.org/

SHELTERBOX originated in the UK, and can also be accessed there and in Australia and NZ.

The only thing I need to remember is : " There but for the grace of God, go I."
Having been lost one home to fire 6 days before Christmas, I know a little bit of what it feels to
be as a refugee, desperate and seemingly without hope.
Prepared to camp in the middle of winter is one thing, but having lost the means to care for oneself and family during the onset of winter is one of the most terrifying moments I think a human can endure.

FWIW, I try to provide my site as a service and so would any wish me profit from this blog, please translate that into positive things for SHELTERBOX and KIVA, if you would.

SHELTERBOX is an efficient volunteer organization, and I know my contribution went directly into helping the afflicted without administrative expense, which is great. Thanks for your attention to this unvarnished commercial message.

Good Luck All,

DG

"DO I FEEL LUCKY TODAY ?"

Ok, so we have SCENARIO's. If any one cares to have to see some similar or supporting arguments WHICH I HAVE READ, just email me for them.

WHY I FEEL LUCKY :

1/ BEEN THERE, DONE THAT. Kinda like the silly paragraph,


"We the willing, led by the unknowing, had done so much with so little,
that we now feel qualified to do anything with nothing."

Thats Kinda how I feel.

Since the November Lows I have participated in rallies and had mixed results, but I am still here, somewhat bent, spindled and a wee bit mutilated, but with a still operative sense of humor to show for it all.

2/ I am as prepared for everything out there as I can be, sans the end of the world, which of
course, no one can ADEQUATELY prepare for.

WHAT are my PREPARATIONS, market-wise ?

A/ I hold stocks in positive trends with safe dividends, ACQUIRED at Panic Levels.
B/ These holdings are NOT on Margin, they are 100% owned.
C/ As a Precious Metals Partisan, I hold several Precious Metal Stocks NOW in
Positive Trends, some paying protected Dividends.
D/ I have a Pre-Positioned NEGATIVE ETF HEDGE Plan ready for deployment
as any ensuing Rally Approaches its Likely EXHAUSTION LEVELS.
E/ MY Hedge will render my portfolio MARKET NEUTRAL, whereas the
Dividends will continue to flow to my portfolio.
Adjusting the amount of NEGATIVE ETF I hold relative to my Portfolio
will allow me to roll my exposure fore and aft, more and less to
either positive or negative trends, by simply buying or selling shares
in said NEGATIVE ETF.

DO YOU FEEL LUCKY TODAY ? ? Dyodd & DYoHW, and you just might. ! ! !

DG

Now that the Market showed it could rally, are you ready to have Your Hopes CRusHED AGAIN?

IT COULD HAPPEN. ! ! ! Who would be surprised by this ? Certainly NOT ME.

What are OUR hopes, our fears ? Our hopes are that the market will turn upward in a spring surge. Our Fears are that we will will be plunged into the Abyss of the UNKNOWN, as we already have been.

So what is being feared is fear itself, to paraphrase FDR. If you look at the slaughter of the PM's Juniors, the decimation of the general market, the plague visited upon the Small Caps, and the
general screwing of the public by the Powers That Be, I say, what is really to FEAR since we
all have BEEN THERE, DONE THAT ? I got the Tee Shirt, and the video. The TEE Shirt I since gave to the Salvation Army and the Video I burnt. If you "Been There, Done That", then you have a guide ! ! !

Lets examine the options, as outlined by several Pundits, whom have been good, not uncanny, but often right.

1/ The market Rallies hard, in electronic speed, to 7500 [ DJIA ] and crashes back to 5000 or so, from whence a Super Rally, ala, "1931", ensues.

2/ The market Crashes hard, in electronic speed to 5000 ala 1932, and stays there [ " L " shaped Depression Coming soon to a town near you ].

3/ Market engages a "Punch - Thru" rally that pierces Upside Resistance @7500 and runs to
10,000, again from then whence no one has a clue what will follow.

NOW that we have outlined those options [ this is NOT an exhaustive list of the options ],
Let us EXAMINE how each of these Options would satisfy some of the 'likely' technical momentum criteria.

A/ Options #1 Could easily reduce the OVERSOLD Compression Pressures in the Breadth Arena, such that these measures could enter the OVERBOUGHT Ranges and render such an advance as Option #1 outlines, seriously Vulnerable to a" INSTANT Crash to 5K" Scenario.
Such an happening, IMO> would likely result in a then, hard and sustainable rally to higher levels. I guessimate the possibility of this happening at 25% for the next 2-3 days.

B/ Option #2, Market Crashes to 5000 directly from here, and stays there, does not Pass Go, nor collect $200.
This would complete SUPER supercede all data for this modern era and set new records for oversold levels portending the end of the world as we know it. I assess the likelihood of this, at
Less than 10% for the next 2-3 days.

C/ Option #3, Direct "PUNCH - THRU" RAlly vaults all resistance and runs right to 10K from here. I assess the likliehood of this as Less than 10% for the next 2-3 days.

My particular conclusion is that we will experience some conclusive action, and if I were a bookie, I'd suggest that we experience enuf Rally to relieve the HISTORICALLY Extreme OVERSOLD Compression in the Breadth Measures, as as they approach their Exhaustion Levels, either a Crash or Drift down to Levels MARGINALLY lower than this LEVEL, wherefrom a more sustainable Rally will result.

WHY ? I Seldom speak of the WHY's because I DONT KNOW THEM. BUT if I had to again guess, I'd suggest that we are awash in liquidity, that the RE-Flation Stimulus Measures are so HISTORICALLY Extreme, that as ANY minor amount of this slops over in the Equity Markets, it will be sufficient to prime the pump to then jump start a rally, after the operative emotion, FEAR, has been softened a bit more.
To its further support, values here are approaching panic levels [ yields of going concerns demonstrate such, IMO ! ], and such Compression in Values as caused by said panic, will need be
lessened in order to ripen the condition for further declines, so Rally will become the temporary path of Least Resistance.

DG

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