Thursday, November 20, 2008

Market valuations detached from reality = PANIC

had a note from a reader the other day, went like this : " We are down 40% from the highs......." yadda yadda yadda !

Ok, its the 3rd or the 5th or the 7th Round, in who knows how many. We are tired,
be have been cut, we hurt. Thats the bad news. Casual observers know this.

I can remember taking a real bruiser of a left right on my nose, let my guard down.

No we were not all in cash in September, most of us. The pain to my brain instantly

alerted me that I was going to lose this fight if I didnt stop feeling tired and a

bit sorry for myself. In a word it ADRENALIZED ME, then I got ANGRY. Not MAD, Angry ! The difference was I looked for this guy's weakness. Two left jabs, a stutter step, fake a third left jab and give him a right upper cut to the left side of his ribcage. The first left connected, the second was blocked, in the stutter step he stepped into me, and extended a left jab as I left jabbed and they blocked each other. As he had stepped into me, I pivoted as I give him the right upper cut, now almost a hook into his ribcage and heard him audibly exhale from the blow and the pain. We were "kids" in a YMCA boxing format, and he won on points and form, he was a good boxer and faster than me.

Was that much different than now ? Investors are bloodied and bruised and the volatility has numbed most of them into easy kills, like the baitfish in the rip tides.

The difference is WE HAVE OUR WITS ABOUT US, and CAN ADJUST, and COUNTER.

Doing my technical scans last night, I came across many a disturbing find.
No, not that new lows were in a ratio of 86 new lows for each 1 new high. That is a number we leave for the " TALKING HEADS " in their " SAME OLE STUFF, DIFFERENT DAY "
Daily Whine.

The other guy in this fight is tired also.

I observed the following stocks, in no particular order in these various formations, again in no particular order :

Bullish Engulfing, New Aroon Uptrend, Improving Money Flow, Bullish Harami, Hammer,
Hollow Red Candle, Bear Trap Alert, Spread Triple Top ;

BAA, RIC, TRE, NSU, KBX, IMO, XLE, NG, ADY, OFI, HPM, HQS, HPC, CEF, PBT, KR, GRZ.

FOOD, OIL, GOLD & SILVER.

Purposely, I avoided ETF's and Inverse ETF's. I tried to include companies that
MAKE THINGS AND STUFF. Kroger sells FOOD & STUFF. Hercules Powder makes stuff
makes other things Go BOOM and BANG. There are others. While I or my Associates
may have short or long postions, I DONT ENDORSE ANY OF these, YET. IN MY OPINION,
readers need DYODD & DYOHW.

Each and every technical formation I have mentioned has a bullish component or implication. Some have bearish potential too. Do the math. Ask YOURSELF, are we closer to a BOTTOM or a TOP here ?? What I can tell you is NO WHERE NEAR AS IMPORTANT as WHAT YOU TELL YOURSELF.

What I can tell you, is that I see PLAYS in FOOD, Energy & PM's, Food now, Energy sooner, and finally PM's. If you are hesitant about entries, and want more info, please dont hesitate to either sign up for Alert Updates or Email me at "denaliguide2@yahoo.com" so I can give you a simple system or two to work with.

Good Luck, these issues are now added to the links under FOOD, ENERGY and PM's, so please excuse any repeats of issues in the charts.

DG

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