Friday, August 8, 2008

QUADS Part2, Elegance in Simplicity

QUADS, Part Deux

Obviously just using ONE stock formation is too simplistic. Or is it NOT ? After lots and lots of searching, scanning and reading, I kinda liked the idea of elegance thru simplicity.

I think I remember back when we used PAPER CHART BOOKS, and I’d order my TRIAL Subscriptions and wait for the package that had a return address for INVESTORS Intelligence, like a kid would await the Christmas Catalog from Sears, Eaton’s or [ in my case, Cabela’s ] .

Long days or boring afternoons, I’d scan, scan,and scan again. After all the Point & Figure instructions, I noticed that long flat formations of alternating rows of X’s & O’s would resolve UP or DOWN, and either way, it’d be a pop up or down for the stock of significant dimensions. Oh did I mention I’d chart the X’s & O’s by pencil, and graph paper?

So if the sideways line of X’s & O’s were at least 3 or 4 boxes in vertical height, and at least either intervals long, you’d have the making of a QUAD line, which signified a very bounded trading range. Once either the X’s moved up [ QUAD Top Breakout ], or the O’s move down [ QUAD Bottom Breakdown], you got a formation that would yield an ongoing objective target in whichever direction it broke out.

At least half the time, the stock involved [ Long for basic example] would BREAKOUT to the Upside, only later to be beaten back down into its socks, WITHIN the QUAD Line formation. For my knowledge, most of the ones so thrashed eventually moved back out to the upside. Better yet, many of them eventually resolve [ Long in this case ] into Spread Triple Tops, Triple Tops, Ascending Triple Tops, and like the Energizer Bunny, just keep going and going and going. Others simply hit their first objective and punk out.

In an glimpse like this, I am not sure I can illustrate how to tell the difference without interdisciplinary analysis or intermarket analysis. I can say if you do your basic Candlestick Chart TA, with MA’s and Volume, you can probably head them off at the pass, and decide which ones to keep. If you don’t do Basic TA, you probably ought to…

Yeah it’s a lot of words, But BUT, I do have some examples I pulled from my notes from 2006, and maybe we can learn something from them together. Nothing fancy or complicated or it defeats my purpose…….

Perfect 1st Stage Quad

This resturant chain, CKR, is popping out of the Quad, in its first stage. Watching it should yield some surprises.

1st Stage Quad CLAY

Now CLAY is a due diligence and financial surveilance company. It is showing that someone or a bunch of someones wants a lot of this stock, in a classic first stage pop up.

Quad POP, & failure MIG

This is an insurance company that popped but then never followed thru........... it was a double from about $3.00 per share.

POPPED then DROPPED

This health goods company had the goods, but dropped the ball. It was an OTC company as is CLAY, but never really panned out.

Next time I will put some up here that have beaten the Energizer Bunny at his own game. !!

Good Luck To All,

DG

denaliguide2@yahoo.com

Objective Data // Rothchild Tango

Looking at the US DOLLAR chart, I could see it returning at least to its old DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE of 76 without too much resistance. Of course after that COULD be the OLD BOTTOM of 81 in 2005, as the next resistance, after which you can look and see the most recent bottom it dropped out of, which I think is about 84 or 85 [ double bottom ]. Of course any move up the scale will likely set up the beginning of some sort of triangle, which, IMO, will resolve to the downside, but after many GOLD and SILVER bulls are seriously wounded. More "Fog of War", from the same people who brought out this tremendous blinding cloud of volatility ! ! !

Will it happen today. NO, probably not. We might be at a very tempting and very short term bottom in the Precious Metals TODAY at the 850 level, but I am wary. I wont share my downside targets, although these charts do illustrate them well, but my guess is it will work out over the MONTHS before the USA PRESIDENTIAL Election.

If you'd rather cuddle a Plague infested skunk, than hold US Common stocks [ Industrial variety ], it might be time to do the Rothchild Tango, 'buy when there is blood running in the streets', and 'sell when everyone is deliriously happy, dancing in the streets'. Its something that is on my mind.




Sadly I find too many agenda's out there !! That is why I stopped reading most text articles. Competing ideas are the lifeblood of a free market, but often too much of a good thing.

FIRST / we know that fiat money is a charade !

SECOND / we know that the CIRCUS-MASTERS can make things jump about when they want.

THIRD / we know they can obscure things with their paid shills and pickpockets, the hedgefunds and others thru volatility.

FOURTH and LAST / We can see every damn thing they do almost instantly, graphically because the computers we are using EACH have more than the total computing power in the world before 1963, on our desks !!!

These are my observations after 40 years. No need to push a point. I CHANGE my views as the market changes them. Much like the gofer in so many organized crime movies, when I need an opinion, the market tells me what my opinion is.........

For that reason, I can be bullish this week and bearish next.... no agenda, just trying to profit......OBJECTIVITY....my goal. We all have the same end, I just dont have the time to read everyone anymore, so I trust the markets data, not just one market and not just one kind of data.

DG

GUESTBOOK