Thursday, November 27, 2008

Is this how it gets good ?




Excuse the switched subject and verb, but is this how "The Rally" will proceed ?

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?kgc,hl,UFI,DHT,FHC,SUF,RSI/UN.TO,GLT,$VLE,$WLSH|B|A12,26,9

"YES Virginia, some investors will exit this rally with profits ! "

" YES Virginia, it IS a Bear Market Rally ! ! ! " But that doesnt mean the

Bear gets to eat you this time. Or any time. IF you think on your feet, command
from the saddle, all while keeping your wits about you. Remember the "warm fuzzy"
feelings we all used to get in the middle of those sweet, sweet, "Buy & Hold" market trends ? RIGHT NOW, if your stomach is not queasy holding the above stocks,
you shouldnt be in this market IMO. Am I too cynical, thinking, your too trusting?

Those warm fuzzy feelings should be the trigger to your gut response to SELL ! !
You see, it isnt safe anymore to buy and hold, if you want to maintain your actual
buying power, rather than nominal dollar totals. The reality is that if this is not your business where you coldly calculate the value of any given stock, you will have unrequited love. These suckers will break your heart, and your wallet. Its the same old story over and over again. The names of the players may change, but the
GAME is Still the SAME !

My Loyalty to Objectivity will remain my constant, my pole star. You will notice that issues pass thru my links as quickly if they were dirty socks. The rule is simple, perform or be selected out. Your job, if you choose to use my screening out and inclusion of issues [ which my Associates and I may or may not have long, short or derivative postions in ], is to DYODD & DYOHW to find issues you like, and to develop selection and timing techniques that will allow you to remove profits from this rally and other market moves of this size and nature. Basically it comes down to, it doesnt so much matter what happens to you, its what you do about it that effects the outcome for or against you.

Good Luck to All,

DG

Some chars as food for thought !

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EGY,Q.TO,AGI.TO,MIG,HQS,PIF/UN.TO,SNG,cia|B|A12,26,9

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Simplicity

No long post. Simply, we are grateful for the things of daily living provided.

Internet perhaps. Clean water, definately YES. Air cleaner,clearer than before,YES

Food, clothing and shelter. If you got it your doing OK. Please think of the folx

on my KIVA Link here. They want a chance, not a hand out. My givings have been

repaid. Maybe its a time to PAY IT FORWARD.

Be thankful. Be vigilant, be kind.

DG

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Eclectic Approach to Non-Rally

Well Investor's Business Daily has panned todays action as a Non-Rally basically because price and volume are displaying opposing trends. I agree, maybe.

I have basically spelled out that I think this is a bottom area , FOR A LOT OF ISSUES.

Notice " ...a bottom area....". Not THE BOTTOM. Not this stock or that stock, but a BOTTOM AREA for a LOT OF ISSUES. So I disagree with Investors Business Daily, maybe.

Here is a cut and paste of part of a technical scan that illustrates what is going on here, from tonite's scans:

P&F Triple Top Alerts (NYSE)
24 Nov 2008
Symbol Name Exch
ASA ASA Ltd.
BRL Barr Laboratories, Inc.
D Dominion Resources Inc
DEG Delhaize Group
EIG Employers Holdings Inc.
IEF 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund
NST Nstar
RYN Rayonier, Inc.
SRE Sempra Energy
TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund
VR Validus Holdings, Ltd.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp.

There are barely any issues in that list that even tangentally relate to each other.

The bear list for the same formation is simply some of everything. At least in a Bull list, there ARE Sectors represented. Yet it would seem it would take Merlin to figure out the relationships btwn these issues, OR WOULD IT ?

To me, this list suggests the full blow potential for an Inflationary Depression, with Weimar Overtones, and a full dose of Finacial Instability, dressed with a large measure of Schizophrenic Volatility. IT whispers, Energy, Specie, Land, Govt Sec's, and Selected Survivors, to me. A similar list of mini-charts that I posted to UPDATES tonite, had that same twisted, tweaked quality, suggesting the possiblity of potential survivors who might thrive in the Post-Bubble-Crash environment.

Since I have begun to use Yahoo Groups for the Updates, the previous updates will be available to new UPDATE requesters.

This Post is not a DONT BUY. It is not an ALL CLEAR. IT is a HEADS - UP !

There are issues out there that will reward those who DYODD & DYOHW. Let this be your starting point. As of last count, there were 1034 ETF's, ETN's [ Long & Short] and Closed End Funds. l To Thrive & Prosper Financially is possible for those willing to work to obtain the knowledge, and do the work. A journey of 1,000 miles starts with but one step.

Good Luck, Be Vigilant,

DG

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Slight change to Update recipients.

If you care to receive UPDATES, I am doing it thru Yahoo Groups. All who received it previous are signed up except those Banning Direct Sign Ups. They will be notified by email, and will need to sign up from their own accounts.

DG

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Market valuations detached from reality = PANIC

had a note from a reader the other day, went like this : " We are down 40% from the highs......." yadda yadda yadda !

Ok, its the 3rd or the 5th or the 7th Round, in who knows how many. We are tired,
be have been cut, we hurt. Thats the bad news. Casual observers know this.

I can remember taking a real bruiser of a left right on my nose, let my guard down.

No we were not all in cash in September, most of us. The pain to my brain instantly

alerted me that I was going to lose this fight if I didnt stop feeling tired and a

bit sorry for myself. In a word it ADRENALIZED ME, then I got ANGRY. Not MAD, Angry ! The difference was I looked for this guy's weakness. Two left jabs, a stutter step, fake a third left jab and give him a right upper cut to the left side of his ribcage. The first left connected, the second was blocked, in the stutter step he stepped into me, and extended a left jab as I left jabbed and they blocked each other. As he had stepped into me, I pivoted as I give him the right upper cut, now almost a hook into his ribcage and heard him audibly exhale from the blow and the pain. We were "kids" in a YMCA boxing format, and he won on points and form, he was a good boxer and faster than me.

Was that much different than now ? Investors are bloodied and bruised and the volatility has numbed most of them into easy kills, like the baitfish in the rip tides.

The difference is WE HAVE OUR WITS ABOUT US, and CAN ADJUST, and COUNTER.

Doing my technical scans last night, I came across many a disturbing find.
No, not that new lows were in a ratio of 86 new lows for each 1 new high. That is a number we leave for the " TALKING HEADS " in their " SAME OLE STUFF, DIFFERENT DAY "
Daily Whine.

The other guy in this fight is tired also.

I observed the following stocks, in no particular order in these various formations, again in no particular order :

Bullish Engulfing, New Aroon Uptrend, Improving Money Flow, Bullish Harami, Hammer,
Hollow Red Candle, Bear Trap Alert, Spread Triple Top ;

BAA, RIC, TRE, NSU, KBX, IMO, XLE, NG, ADY, OFI, HPM, HQS, HPC, CEF, PBT, KR, GRZ.

FOOD, OIL, GOLD & SILVER.

Purposely, I avoided ETF's and Inverse ETF's. I tried to include companies that
MAKE THINGS AND STUFF. Kroger sells FOOD & STUFF. Hercules Powder makes stuff
makes other things Go BOOM and BANG. There are others. While I or my Associates
may have short or long postions, I DONT ENDORSE ANY OF these, YET. IN MY OPINION,
readers need DYODD & DYOHW.

Each and every technical formation I have mentioned has a bullish component or implication. Some have bearish potential too. Do the math. Ask YOURSELF, are we closer to a BOTTOM or a TOP here ?? What I can tell you is NO WHERE NEAR AS IMPORTANT as WHAT YOU TELL YOURSELF.

What I can tell you, is that I see PLAYS in FOOD, Energy & PM's, Food now, Energy sooner, and finally PM's. If you are hesitant about entries, and want more info, please dont hesitate to either sign up for Alert Updates or Email me at "denaliguide2@yahoo.com" so I can give you a simple system or two to work with.

Good Luck, these issues are now added to the links under FOOD, ENERGY and PM's, so please excuse any repeats of issues in the charts.

DG

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

And now a Fourth Touch of that $6.50 Level by Nat Gas

Clarity comes from knowing. If the readers here were Associates who retained me, well I would not be working so hard to get them to investigate and DYODD & DYOHW.

I was directly asked, what I meant by my last $NATGAS chart. I meant, INVESTIGATE !
Many factors bear on a market like NAT GAS. The "Weight of the Evidence" is most often made graphically visible via charts.

I mean that the $6.50 Level has been touched and rebounded off of FOUR TIMES.
The price of gas has made drilling uneconomic. That does not matter if no one wants gas. Fertilizer is made from Nat Gas, as is chemical feedstock. Fuel & energy feeds off Nat Gas, as does Oil Sands production. Natural Gas is obviously worth something.

Given the uses of Nat Gas, and its consumption, it will have to be supplied.
Such as the cost of production is, there is no excess to be dumped on the markets, so
unless the price goes up, gas wont be produced. Unlike some products, NAT GAS was never much of a by-product, so if the cost of production is not equalled or exceeded by the market price, it will not be produced.

Such understanding, if you possess it, will do you well, so that you can confidently investigate and provide your own market research, rather than being
dependent upon the opinions of others, good, bad or indifferent, mine included.

Good Luck,

DG

Friday, November 14, 2008

TOOLMAN TIM, on the FOURTEENTH ! ! !

Subtitle: DUMMER THAN A BOX OF HAMMERS ??


Ya gotta love Tim & Al on Home Improvement. They were so well known amongst my guests in THE Park, I could make jokes about the size of a huge beaver lodge belonging to a Tim Allen-like beaver, and it would get a laugh.

And yes, some collections of tools are nice but they aren't too smart, such as a box of hammers. I dont like anything as "dumb as a box of hammers", but sometimes I like collections of Hammers like the one I have just added to my links. H is for Hammer

A hammer for candlestick fans is a formation that occurs where the closing price of a stock, closes above the previous close, has a body that extends above the bottom of the body of the previous day. Properly constituted, it is a powerful reversal pattern.
How exactly it works, is best investigated on your own initiative, and the Chart School at Stock Charts is a good place to start. There are certain difference of interpretation, that are significant, IMO, and if you find this confusing, please
drop me an email, "denaliguide2@yahoo.com".

We do not endorse any of these stocks, although we may have positions in these stocks or their derivatives over an indeterminate period of time.

Good Luck.

DG

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Thursday the THIRTEENTH - Wheew whoo ! !



Well as I was cruising my charts, comparing stock bottoms, I just pushed into my NatGas pix. Nice....... DOES IT GET ANY CLEARER ?

Paulson wants this, Congress wants that, Palin is gonna run for Senate, MAYBE.

Does any of this say BI-POLAR to anyone ? Whom's among us, has been there in 1936 ?

Doom and gloom as thick as it could be while war clouds wafted in over Europe.
Who was there in 1942, when the Allies were getting their butts whipped all over Europe and the Pacific? How about it, how many guys here knew about "Task Force Smith"
where virtually every able bodied American stationed in Japan was sent to Korea to repulse the "surprise attack" in 1950 ?

For every black psychological moment like this, there has been a lifting.

The most serious problem that faces anyone is the Psychological Paralysis that come from the Talking Heads, the Gathering of Guru's, the Tsunami of Text, the TEchNIcal ANalYsis Paralysis.

Most investors are numb and shell shocked, like baitfish slammed from pillar to post and back again, swimming in circles, easy prey.

Look at the above chart and ask yourself : " IS IT CLEAR ENUF YET ? "

Do you need a WeatherMan to tell you which way the wind is blowing ?

Is it just Nat Gas ? Or has the cash outflow from every sector, done exactly the same thing? Probably not exactly the same, not in the same time or same measure, but I bet if you DYODD, and DYOHW, you will find similarities.

If you dont know how to find them, drop me a note at "denaliguide2@yahoo.com" and I will send you a couple ways to look for them.

Good Luck ya'll

DG

Friday, November 7, 2008

Link Update

Please note for the Canadian Readers, I have updated the CANADIAN Technical Scans.

These scans represent issues selected from technical scan filters, showing particular

characteristics as diverse as money flow and Japanese Candlestick patterns. Those

interested in these issues are cautioned to DYODD, & DYOHW. If you have specific

questions on how to accomplish this, please inquire of me, at:

"denaliguide2@yahoo.com", and I will do my best to point you in the right

direction.

Good Luck All, and have a great weekend.


DG

Thursday, November 6, 2008

FEAR Mongering & Panic Redux

Please note that I have reviewed all the stocks listed in the links.

Note that I added four new links. The most interesting one to me, is the LAST Technical Scan SHORT, Bank of America. I am sure that readers are aware of the
fantastically impossible acquisitions that BAC was used to 'bailout', I think it is ironic that its P & F downside objective is ZERO at this time.
Not that I think any sane Central Banking Authority will let this organization fail, I can see it slowly twisting in the wind as dire announcements after announcements of "special charges", etc, etc, ad nauseum. SEE IMAGE BELOW:

Clarification

Please note, that the shorter of the two curves represents the $bkx. The longer curve, is the Liquidity Flow Projection.

Good Luck.

DG

Fear Mongering, Panic Pandering. ENUF Already !

Seems to me you cant open your E-mail, your snail-mail, the TV without someone freaking out about how BAD things are. This, that, and the other. FEAR, INDECISION, buy my service, do what I say, The Sky is Falling, oh Chicken Little The Sky is Falling.

Maybe its time to simply figure out what sectors are falling and rising and find a way to time the Intermediate Trend rather than just listening to all this noise.

Much, much of what I used to read is simply noise, as the Gathering of Guru's specialize in cancelling each other out, and its all sound and fury signifiying nothing.

Below is a graphic of a liquidity flow projection for the last quarter of 2008.

Equity markets respond to liquidity or the lack thereof, make up your own mind.

I am long $BKX & XLE Call Options.

DG



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