Thursday, August 28, 2008
What we see is the effect of this influences. Storm surges, tsunami’s, Neap Tides, new group being deposited, old islands disappearing.
Trends would be like ocean currents like the Gulf Stream, the Labrador Current, the Japan Current, and where they conflict and collide, it would be like Cape Horn, violent, dangerous and confusing.
If your sailing in such a storm, or vicious collision of tides or trends, there is little to do but insure your ships safety and move on. Observing tides and trends at a distance and getting the “Big Picture” is safe, but reveals the biggest ongoing trends. Where is the subtlety?
If you ever get tired of hearing “The Trend is Your FRIEND”, I have a paraphrase or two, the first of which is “The Trend is Your FRIEND, until the END.” Paraphrase #2 is
“The END of a Trend is Your FRIEND”.
To illustrate these points, I refer to some Momentum Shift Studies I completed this weekend. I usually generate two lists. One gaining Momentum, One losing Momentum.
LOSING MOMENTUM were
AGRICULTURE ; AUTO PARTS ; FOOD , Dairy & Meat ; MACHINERY, Farm & Construction ; MINING, Gold, Silver, Copper; OIL ; and PAPER.
GAINING MOMENTUM were
BLDG MAT’Ls, Wood; BUSINESS INFORMATION ; ENERGY, Alternative ; INSURANCE ; MACHINE TOOLS ; OFFICE AUTOMATION ; RETAIL, Apparel & Shoes ; TEXTILES.
Now that is a confusing mix, but subtlety is there. Machinery of a nature is falling but yet MACHINERY for RE-Tooling is gaining. Can you see the INflation / DEflation battle is right there. GOLD MINING is tanking, and INSURANCE is ascending.
Those are some of the stories. Certainly this market reminds me of Sidney Sheldon’s book title “MASTER of the GAME”. I loved the movie, and will have to read the book again some time.
The Market IS MASTER OF THIS GAME !! But we get peeks and hints IF we know how and where to look. WE are always wrong when TRENDS BEGIN and TRENDS END. Finding the turning points is probably the most fun. Remember the concept of “neutral buoyancy” ? Early on in Astronaut development NASA sends their guys up in a C-130 Hercules Cargo Aircraft and puts into some porpoise roller coaster moves in order to create ZERO GRAVITY. If you could visualize how the planes path, up and down, you see just where the TRENDS begin and end……..Kinda reminds me of the old Lava Lamps with the different coloured fluids would rise and fall, seemingly on their own.
This concept of MOMENTUM SHIFTS is important in stock sectors since it is alledged that HALF a stocks move will be related to its sector, hot or cold. It is another way we can stack the odds in our favor.
Good Luck to All
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As I was picking thru my box of tools, I found one I liked, and then I tweaked it to give me a couple hints.
The First Hint I got was where the dashed blue line indicates a bottom level for the Dollar Rally to attain, and the Second Hint was the other graphic with another dashed blue line, which, IMO, will be the LIKELY ABSOLUTE TOP CONTAINMENT for this current dollar rally.
I dont think I have the chuzpah to call the price level where the DOLLAR RALLY will stop but I do have a good handle on a Date Window where a trend reversal will occur for the DOLLAR or The Anti-DOLLAR [ Gold ]. In the possible event they move both in synch with each other, I am thinking my Window on the turn date will be valid for the Ant-Dollar, more so, than the DOLLAR, but that will take a bit more time to figure out.
The Anti-DOLLAR [ GOLD ] might reverse BEFORE the DOLLAR RALLy hits the wall, and the two could once again move in synch for a while.
As to the unlikely nature of this situation, we have the DOLLAR breaking out of a DOUBLE TOP and into a BULLISH CATAPULT, so it forces me to objectively think out how this could end or continue. This is what I have come up with........
GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
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Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Know what a total planetary disaster getting into a deflationary stall-spin [ Death Spiral], would entail, EVERYONE on the PLANET wants to resume inflation. I think this deflation was a ballsy move on the part of TPTB to slow down the Weimar and make sure it only is a Mini-Weimar until they reconnect gold to currency at some FOUR DIGIT Dollar Conversion Figure. IF it goes to FIVE Figures its going to have been a FULL WEIMAR, and with MORE devastating consequences than if they can do it in the FOUR FIGURES. Essentially once it gets above the the INFLATION ADJUSTED BREAKEVEN @ a Given Date, then you can use the actual gold price to determine how bad or good things are. Given that other commodities are either in More or Less demand at that time, will tell you whether to be in Food, Fertilizer, Silver, Platinum, Moly, Water, Coal, Nat Gas, Oil, Solar, GeoThermal, or whatever.
We might dislike the monetary and governmental authorities for their hypocrisy and lies, but they in fact, will do both what they are ordered to, and what it takes to keep the wheels turning.
Given that fact, and that we all live on the same planet, to twist and paraphrase what Ben Franklin said, " We will have to hang in there with THEM, for in the END, if they fail, we might ALL be hung seperately but it will be of the SAME ROPE". Like it or not, our fates are similarly entwined with theirs, no matter what precautions we might have taken.
Should we have successfully [ in our own minds ] insulated ourselves from the fates of the masses, be assured it will only make our demise slightly later and slightly more comfortable.........in the end we will suffer the same fate. Thats my view, and why I hope those in control, can do a controlled crash landing of this damaged Boeing 777 of a world economy with a minimum of damage.
Granted we might destroy ourselves with nuclear weapons, the chances of that drop, IMO, tremendously as Global economies positively effect Regional economies, aside from
Philosophical differences [ i.e. in the case of 'supposidly COMMUNIST China ] could cause a difference but IMO, they will be trumped by Financial Success.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Ask Vietnamese who fled the COMMUNIST’s during the fall of Saigon in ’75. They brought little Tael’s of gold with them. They got VALUE, it was transportable. Some had platinum, they did a little better.
I experienced “Refugee Shock” in small measure when my home burnt 7 days before Christmas. An INTERNAL REFUGEE. No place to go, covered with the smell of the burnt plastics and fiberboard.
Tough, determined to go on, Post Traumatic Shocked out of my head, getting harder with each adverse development, only to break down incoherently when when the kindness of someone pulled me back from the brink.
What saved me ? ? ? Besides the support of friends and financial support of fire insurance, it was the things I’d stored in an outside shed about 100’ from my home.
Sleeping bags. A stupid used Black & Decker under counter coffee-maker. Comfort in a word. COMFORT.
Maslowe’s Hierchy of Needs, puts SECURITY right at the top. Composed of FOOD, CLOTHING, & SHELTER [ heat & thus ENERGY ], and WATER.
Gold is very low on that scale, UNTIL YOU NEED IT. Platinum. Silver. NO gems or rare postage stamps.
Remember “KILLING FIELDS” ? The Khmer Lieutenant had 3 or 5 $ US 20 Dollar FRN’s stashed in his wallet. Why ? It was NOT gold. IT WAS and IS recognized throughout the PLANET as a medium of exchange without severe discount.
Read this Article about DISCOUNT:
So in order to protect, without great burden, what do you do? Me? I have a greenhouse, and a garden, a pheasant cock bird and some Rhode Island Reds as his hens. I have a garden, compost pile and a swimming pool. A freezer, reliable electricity, and lots of firewood. That’s me. Whats you?
Speaking of anything other than a super power uptrend in precious metals seems to be heresy amongst the anti-fiat community, and that is understandable, but then those ideas are the philosophical rocks that this community dashes itself upon when the trends do not run in their favor. Thus my need for objectivity.
Do I not believe that HARD MONEY is the way to go? Very much I believe it. When my beloved wife and I married, the gifts we bought to exchange were the Silver One Ounce coins of our respective countries that be bought and exchanged outside Cook Travel in WhiteHorse,Yukon Territory. Sadly Cooks is out of that business in WhiteHorse now, but then again, the namesake of WhiteHorse has also been obliterated.
Those coins now exist inside a glass frame, each one flanking our wedding picture. We are quite unorthodox, but appear ‘normal.’, if you know what I mean………. So my HARD MONEY protection is enuf US silver 25 cent pieces to buy that many gallons of motor fuel, enuf silver denari [ dimes [ 10 cent pieces ]] to buy us bread, enuf implements to raise food, and tools enuf to defend us in gravest extreme until civil order be restored, if ever it leaves, in the terrane where we live. Soap - > now that is a Medium of BARTER. ! ! !
So fear not, should you not have gobs and gobs of money or savings with which to buy precious metals…….it aint necessary, just great if you can, but there are Other ways to BE PRUDENT.
The real BOTTOM LINE to Being Prudent, is to make sure you have handy access to those items necessary to the Affairs of Daily Living. That will give you peace of mind.
You don’t need a whole lotta money to start with. You need a surplus in your daily life and a brain that works. Not more.
Good Luck to All. Remember its all fun and games until someone loses an eye. THEN its SPORT.
Fight Nice, ya’ll, YA Hear ??
Friday, August 22, 2008
Yes an unbelievable view. Probably 30 miles or 50 KM across that valley to the base of those other peaks. A crystal clear day. What can you see? This is a bit more than halfway into the Original Denali Park. We have just past Polychrome Pass, so named for for all the brilliant colors. The wispy clouds drop most of their moisture on the OTHER side of those peaks your seeing, leaving this the North side a bit drier, not that the griz or caribou mind alot, they like to move down the river plain, browsing as they go.
Its about a 2000 foot drop to the valley floor, and Marmot Rock which stands out in front of us here is the preferred perch for a pair of GYRFALCONS who both roost and nest around that rock. The marmots that live on Marmot rock are NOT the preferred prey, as they are a bit too large and dont fly. The GYR's like to take their prey in the air, in a several hundred MPH dive, killing or knocking their prey senseless with their balled talons, and catching their prize in midair. Ptarmigan are their most common prey, and they have developed SOME but not total defense against the GYR's. The GYR's are the white or black Arctic Falcons, prized by the wealthiest falconers throughout the world.
Rest assured, whether you see the GYR or not, THEY SEE YOU. The secret is in knowing where to look in advance of arriving on the observation post. They are fearless but wary, especially when they have their young. Golden Eagles are often seen frequenting the area, so, the GYR's are rightly wary..........
Does this apply to us ? Let see, gold is off its 1033 high, having fallen to 782, whoda thunk that to happen ? Should not oil react in ratio to that ?
While I "plan" to do an "Energy Price Projection" for a composite of OIL & NAT GAS,
perhaps some basic CANDLESTICK Charting would help. First, the basic trend, on say, a 200 day or 30 wk MA should be plotted with an MACD underneath. That would show most clearly in a weekly chart at least 2-3 years in length. Next some daily chart showing CANDLESTICKS would be in order.
IF I had just a very short time, I'd say, get a grip on the HAMMER formation. IT, to me has been a bit tricky to understand, but fortunately my good friend impressed on me THAT IT must OPEN Lower than the Candle to the LEFT CLOSED. The HAMMER [ to be meaningfully bullish ] MUST be the last candle in a DECLINING TREND. IF you properly spot a HAMMER, the next formation will likely be self explanatory.....
IF this chart posts, the HAMMER is the RED CANDLE, second from the RIGHT. This is an illustration, and not an endorsement, but I'd always say DYODD & DYOHW.
Anyone like $550 to $650 to be a Primary LOW for gold this year, with the 782 as the secondary low? I am thinking really hard about that.......Anyone play with CDY out there? I am so tempted to try it, but I was " In Like [ not in love ]" with it once before and got slapped before I even tried to steal a kiss, so I am leary....
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Now I have one question, to paraphrase Clint Eastwood, " Do you feel lucky today ? "
Now my question is the same one it was a month ago:
" How lucky do you feel with the USD Dollar @ an index of .81 ?"
I can give you a scientific wild guestimate where gold is on the Disperstion diagram with $USD @ .81 - > at that point it stands at $650 US Dollars per ounce.
The next question is how lucky you feel if the $USD index hits .84 ?
Well if I were in GOLD SHOES, I'd think I'd be looking @ maybe $525 per troy ounce of gold.
Now, if the Dollar were to hit .87, the supposed price of gold would be in the $375-400 range......... Think about that. ! ! !
My bet is that the Dollar stops this rally at .85 or less. Not that the damage would not be done, for sure it would. But then again, it'd be a double off that with ease, as the Mini-Weimar kicks in. Tis food for thought ! ! !
I dont remember whose thread I got the Dispersion Chart from but it should be standard equipment in any speculator's kit. At least that way with some basic forecasting tools and the chart you can get a bead on several Time & Price Scenarios. Without it your flying blind, worse than dead reckoning, as your working in ZERO Visibility.
At least with a set of Ranger Beads and a basic compass, you might not be pinpoint, but you'll get where your going
I really take quads seriously. YOU might have gathered as much. I take them seriously when they go UP and when they go down. I also like to follow up on issues that I discuss.
To those who read my small feature on CHQ in Tobinator’s August Quarterly review, saw that I am enthused about the technical prospects for the stock and its warrants. Today I watched it morph from a Quad Top BreakOUT to a SELL in traditional P & F charts. Now I return to visit it again, and ‘voila’, the sell is GONE, but a downside objective of $4.00 has now replaced the previous Upside Objective of $11.25. YIKES ! !
So to QUAD or Not to QUAD. Lets discuss this - > SILVER dropped out of flight formation like a B-17 hit by AAA Flak over Bremerhaven in 1944. IT DROPPED OUT OF A QUAD BOTTOM. Comparing the most common free chart of P & F, on Stockcharts, shows us that. CHQ did not drop out of a QUAD BOTTOM Formation, but did a step down. I wont speculate why. I am not a fundamentalist. Typically, tho, as a technician, I would have grounds to wonder what caused that drop, technically. Did someone drop a 200 K block on the market ? A 100K block ? Someone, somehow, some way, bombed the stock.
So now we make a decision. QUADDING means you can buy a number of stocks in QUAD BREAKOUTS, putting equal funds in each, and hold the winners and sell the laggards. You can decide if you want to pursue that tactic, and if you do, then we go forward this way ->, If you are comfortable with Short Term Operations, you can wait till it comes out of its NO-SELL-ZONE on a bounce and sell out to re-enter at a lower level.
AGILE as we may think we are, the risk is that we will be psychologically unable to buy it at prices that present themselves later [ higher or lower than we exited ]. By example, my assessment of the support zone here in CHQ is about $4.00 to $5.00. By the book, we cannot overweight in our INTIAL QUAD positions. Overweight will come about naturally as we sell our laggards and keep our keep our QUADS leading the way up.
Therefore in your initial QUAD positions you would do well to define where you are in and where you are out, and resolve any dilemma arising that way…….. This is my update on CHQ, and my way of addressing this particular thing that “went bump in the night”.
STOPS, mental, hard, trailing or otherwise, as long as they are observed, are your friends. They are my friends……..
If you have any problem with the concept of a NO-SELL-ZONE, drop me a line at email@example.com, and I will supply you with an easy way to determine the NSZ.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Lets go back to the trite "Good News, Bad News" dialog. Its worse than Abbott & Costello, trust me on that......
QUADS ARE POWERFUL and this is ALARMING ! ! !
BAD QUAD, BAD QUAD. Notice I did NOT say BEAR QUAD. That is the good and bad news, IMO. The good news is that the support is so deep here for silver, that probably not even a quad bottom breakout could violate it. The bad news is that so many "bulls" in the silver camp were looking at the "grass is greener" scenario's, that this intermediate correction will leave them as prime cuts of aged beef, hanging in a cold walk-in box, before the next upwave arrives. I am going to guess it will be a matter of volatility rather than a matter of time. The reason being is that a return to SINGLE digit silver prices will no doubt cause a stampede. A stampede could easily turn into a rout, and therefore a price cascade. OBJECTIVITY, hopefully will keep some bulls from becoming Prime Rib for a epicurean bear dinner.
On one of the accompanying charts, the 45 degree blue line shows SUPPORT for Silver in the $6's. YES SIX DOLLARS per troy ounce of Silver. Will it go there? IMO, maybe in a spike. Will it stay there ? Probably not given the dynamics and fundamentals of the suppy and demand in the world, IMO. The fundamentals are clear, even if the dynamics are not.
Will you get injured? Will your positions get damaged? That depends on your own capacity for: OBJECTIVITY; and DENIAL? Will you be able to profit from this move, one or both ways. That depends on your OBJECTIVITY and AGILITY. Will you have CASH enuf to exploit these moves? REPEAT AFTER ME: I will be OBJECTIVE; I will NOT be in DENIAL ; I will maintain an posture of poise and agility.
It is clear that the market has a mind of its own. Are there those amongst us who can march in step with this market, or will we moan and groan because the market is out of stop with us??
For all you old TV fans, where the 6 0'Clock Anchor guy would sign off with a big story with the phrase: "Film @ 11 PM", I can only say, "Digital Updates ASAP" ! ! !
We should watch VERY carefully for any rally attempt from this level...Its success or failure to thrive could present us with a great deal of information.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Ester comes to mind because I like Linux Gold which bought a huge tract of placer claims along Ester Creek. All placer gold has a source, and the lore in Alaska, is usually about a huge mountain that just bleeds gold out into the creeks, anciently and currently. Ester Dome is one such place, and the ground was legendary rich when the miners first went in there in the early 1900's. It is still quite productive and I have no idea, 'cept for the $10 Million that Linux alledgedly paid to get the 30 claims it bought, what ever you could offer an Ester Stakeholder to give up his or her claim. No one ever wants to sell in that area. Ask Kinross, who bought out some claims there on the slopes of the dome....
My point here is not to discuss Kinross or Linux, but to mention Douglas Lake Minerals and their placer prospect in Tanzania. I was reading the report and was struck by the similarity of it to the Ester area. A dozer, rocker box or sluice if you had water, yields lots of gold to the artisan miners, and there is no drilling required. You can reference the PDF report on the Yahoo Board, see for yourself.
Supposidly Bob M. of 321 bad mouthed them but all I can see he said is that the mgmt didnt know how to run a placer operation. Take it or leave it FWIW, it donesnt confront me at all. I notice it cause two things, one it was the #2 pick in Tobinators Qrtrly Report, and my scan this morning showed me a HAMMER candlestick, as I was looking for items to work with. I like everything about it, but it, like Silver Dragon, is not for the faint hearted, so DYODD & DYOHM, before you jump in, but it looks like the negative comments and the plunge in the gold price have opened a seam here, look carefully.
Looking a Japanese Candlestick patterns brought me to BASELINE Oil & GAS [ BOGA ].
If you want to do some homework, I'd advise a look. It has a nice HAMMER and its trend is interesting. Its on my Radar.
Ya'll Fight nice, now, ya hear??
Thursday, August 14, 2008
One of my fun pursuits in the Autumn, in Northern Alaska is to go out into the dredge 'tailings' [ the rockpiles created by gold dredges as they chewed their way thru the river bottoms sifting out gold from their movable ponds ], with a metal detector and Remington 20 gauge pump shotgun. I would be 'sniping' small bits of gold missed by the dredges without 'nugget traps' on the back end of their sluice boxes.
'PLACER' gold, its called, after the Espanol, "Plaza" which describes the wide expanses where one ancient river bed emptied into another. Gold, finer than flour, and in some cases with nuggets as small as a ballpoint pen tip and other cases the size of the first digit of your index finger.
Some days I got a wee bit o'gold, on my Yamaha ATV, wandering around out by the Davidson Ditch. Sometimes I got a grouse or two for my pot. Sometimes I got really scared.......REALLY SCARED ! ! ! Mostly by MOOSE, seldom by bears. No Salmon spawning up in these elevations, as they dont waste the energy to get above, say, 2,000 ft above sea level, so no danger bears were scavaging salmon during grouse season [ Autumn begins around July 21 up there, and Grouse season opens August 10th].
But I was Loaded for BEAR, Just in Case. Perhaps you should always consider haveing plans, in case there is a bear around.
Since gold was in the 300-400 dollar range, I never really made my gas going out and back, most times, 40-80 miles out on the Steese Hiway, but I usually got some tasty treats for my pot back at camp, so it was a glorious way to spend say 10 days during the beginning of Autumn, with NO bugs. I now hope everyone is enjoying the same.
Do all the readers or did all the readers have protective stops under their NON-CORE Holdings? Are some of us wondering if we'd taken such provisions, would be feel free to go on holidays with a carefree mindset?
The GOOD NEWS, at least as it relates to GOLD, is that there is no way, IMO, that this decline can touch the main trend, THE MAIN LINE OF RESISTANCE of the GOLD BULL.
THE BAD NEWS ? ? ? Well that my friends is THAT THE MAIN LINE OF MONTHLY RESISTANCE for this GOLD BULL lies between $325 & $410 US per Oz, on the continuous contract [ might as well be spot ].
Well now we know about GOLD & BEARS.... Now for the grouse, excuse me, Grousing...
ya know, complaining, woulda, coulda, shoulda....... I think what we have here
" Is A Failure to Communicate", that BULL TRENDS of immense power such as this gold trend, have Secondary or Intermediate Trends of Intense and Fierce nature, like Mom Grizz chasing off intruders. Perhaps the corrections are even 3X more scary than the advances. Did we get lulled into a false sense of security by the persistence of Gold's upward March? If so we are about to suffer some serious casualties of a REAL Counter Attack, not just the NYMX 8 AM dump ! ! !
So now, NO Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda, OK ? ? ? Can we Counter Attack, the COUNTER ATTACK ? How 'bout we have some fun? Lets play Middle Line Backer [ Ala National Football League ], lets GO WITH THE FLOW, and make the play.
HOW CAN WE DO THIS ? ? ? I think a great device is Swing or Momentum Trading, IF you pick the right horse to ride.......Plenty of articles out there on how to do this, fewer, tho on how to pick the right horse [ Kings Crown in the 5th at Santa Anita ? ].
The bottom line here is preparation or lots of painkillers and Valium. You pick.
Monday, August 11, 2008
but I made sure his Quarterly Newsletter made it out in e-mail before I publish this article I wrote for his Newsletter. It should contain some of the elements we have covered here, and provide a good review below, with the chart above.
Challenger (Amex - CHQ): is a Canadian Energy Company, whose Primary
Play is in Trinidad in a JV with Canadian Superior Energy [ SNG [Amex also ].
Personally I have followed SNG for some time, since the 1’s & 2’s, but I could
never get a handle on how the stock moved. Interestingly CHALLENGER is
an easier stock to trade, if that what you want to do. The warrants make an
interesting trading proposition as they are STRIKE @ $4.40 and run until
March 6, 2010, and at $1.60 ea, they are evaluated as UNDER VALUED.
What makes the stock soooo interesting to me is a Breakout from a Quad
TOP formation with a projected eventual objective of $11.25.
This is primarily a Nat Gas play [the primary play motivating the stock now ] in
the prolific Caribbean Basin, and this is the first well that has been ‘brought-in’
in this particular section. What makes it of individual interest is that the well is
flowing more gas than predicted and will be coming into production by their
estimates within 60 days.
CHQ has interest in the oil and gas patch off Nova Scotia and around Sable
Island, but that is not the clincher, nor are their interests in Western Canada.
You can find mucho activity about it on the Yahoo boards, Investor Village,
Stockhouse, and probably Agora. While that is NOT where I’d start my DD, it
is a place to get an idea of whom the players are, and get up to speed on
developments surrounding the company.
Oh yes I have an upside objective for Nat Gas which is a screamer, and is
multiples of its current price, which makes this stock even more interesting.
Trinidad has the largest Nat Gas refinery and LNG operations in the
America’s and is a stable jurisdiction oriented to protecting that economic
asset, so I do not expect any upset from that quarter.
The chart below provides me with two formations glaring right back at me.
1/ First and obvious is the Breakout from a Quadruple Top. I love quads they
take years to unwind, and run and run and run. This formation has the least
number of failures to perform of any I have ever watched.
2/ Second and almost as obvious is a Symmetrical Triangle forming RIGHT
OFF THE QUAD ! ! ! Usually they resolve in the direction of the TREND.
Right now doing a Vertical Count, I’d say it could give a $3.00 pop from the
point of its breakout,
For me, it’s the Technicals that are compelling here, clearly illustrating a great
deal of buying pressure,that is a direct result of its fundamentals. The stock,
since QUADS could take awhile to work out, might be like MCF was, a clear
keeper to the top, whereas I think the warrants would offer a great trading
play up and down, up and down.
For you who’d like to see my trading take on how to run it, you can contact
me, Denaliguide @hotmail.com, also on MSN. Credits to Stockcharts.com
for their chart. For the record, both myself and associates have positions in this stock and warrants.
The quest for profits is fraught with danger. Emotions. Treacherous Markets. Hidden Agendas. New Players. Changing dynamics.
What sets the Successful Questors aside from the rest? Inside Information. Huge Capital. Financial Agility. Nerves of Steel.
My answer is that it is a mixed bag, some, all, none of each. That is a very strong “I DON’T KNOW !!”
What do I know. I know for every long side of a transaction, there is a short side. Normally, there are not many ties in the marketplace, and also the HOUSE gets a piece of the action.
Whereas when someone says: “ It was a BAD WEEK in the MARKETS”, I can only assume they meant for their mindset. Were they short? Were they long? What was the counter party to their transaction -> I bet that Counter Party had a GOOD WEEK in the MARKETS.
THEREFORE it depends on your viewpoint. Did we get our viewpoint from market dynamics, and try to fit IT TO THE MARKET, or did we HAVE a VIEWPoint and try to MAKE THE MARKET FIT that viewpoint? ?? Which approach HURT more?
I know I HATE getting whipped in and out of my stops. BUT that is way less painful that enduring a position that goes south on me and stays there ! ! !
Ricard Wycoff once said it was much more important to heed what the market was saying about others, than to heed what others were saying about the market.
TO BE OBJECTIVE, is TO BE EFFECTIVE. That’s the best I can do. OBJECTIVITY.
The below is what I consider objective, from Stockcharts this morning. This is not to suggest, that I think it is the ONLY way. No ! ! However we know this to be objective information. It is mathematical and physics, and must obey all the laws of those disciplines. Therefore, I would be inclined to depend upon it, and my findings concering it, rather than the subjective ramblings of any writers, myself included.
P&F Quadruple Top Alerts (NYSE) Create your own scans
8 Aug 2008
Symbol Name Exch Open High Low Close Volume
CKR Cke Restaurants, Inc. NYSE 13.000 13.800 12.920 13.660 1139524
IHI iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices NYSE 61.420 62.470 60.993 62.436 172733
MDT Medtronic, Inc. NYSE 52.330 53.830 52.180 53.740 7336946
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. NYSE 59.960 61.150 59.760 61.000 2731644
UFI Unifi, Inc. NYSE 3.400 3.490 3.180 3.300 780502
What does it really tell us> ? ? It tell us that these stock broke upward out of a trading range however long, bounded by three previously unsuccessful tries to breach the upper boundary of that trading range. That’s ALL it tells us. We can learn and infer far more, but that’s ALL it tells us, but that is IRREFUTABLE, alth subject to retraction and reversal.
Now ask yourself, what of the subjective market writings that we read daily is NOT subject to retraction and reversal? Also how do we vett or verify that information?
WE KNOW THIS INFORMATION to be perfectly VETTED and it is information on hand at this instant.
Look at the chart of CKR on the previous post. Do your own homework [ DYOH] and then do your own due diligence [ DYODD ]. There are many methods out there. Pick any two or three that you can cross reference and cross correlate, and DYOH, DYODD.
Oh yes, tis nice to talk with other passengers when we are on a boat, at the rail, but if too many crowd onto the same side of the boat, well you tell me what happens ? ? ?
Friday, August 8, 2008
Obviously just using ONE stock formation is too simplistic. Or is it NOT ? After lots and lots of searching, scanning and reading, I kinda liked the idea of elegance thru simplicity.
I think I remember back when we used PAPER CHART BOOKS, and I’d order my TRIAL Subscriptions and wait for the package that had a return address for INVESTORS Intelligence, like a kid would await the Christmas Catalog from Sears, Eaton’s or [ in my case, Cabela’s ] .
Long days or boring afternoons, I’d scan, scan,and scan again. After all the Point & Figure instructions, I noticed that long flat formations of alternating rows of X’s & O’s would resolve UP or DOWN, and either way, it’d be a pop up or down for the stock of significant dimensions. Oh did I mention I’d chart the X’s & O’s by pencil, and graph paper?
So if the sideways line of X’s & O’s were at least 3 or 4 boxes in vertical height, and at least either intervals long, you’d have the making of a QUAD line, which signified a very bounded trading range. Once either the X’s moved up [ QUAD Top Breakout ], or the O’s move down [ QUAD Bottom Breakdown], you got a formation that would yield an ongoing objective target in whichever direction it broke out.
At least half the time, the stock involved [ Long for basic example] would BREAKOUT to the Upside, only later to be beaten back down into its socks, WITHIN the QUAD Line formation. For my knowledge, most of the ones so thrashed eventually moved back out to the upside. Better yet, many of them eventually resolve [ Long in this case ] into Spread Triple Tops, Triple Tops, Ascending Triple Tops, and like the Energizer Bunny, just keep going and going and going. Others simply hit their first objective and punk out.
In an glimpse like this, I am not sure I can illustrate how to tell the difference without interdisciplinary analysis or intermarket analysis. I can say if you do your basic Candlestick Chart TA, with MA’s and Volume, you can probably head them off at the pass, and decide which ones to keep. If you don’t do Basic TA, you probably ought to…
Yeah it’s a lot of words, But BUT, I do have some examples I pulled from my notes from 2006, and maybe we can learn something from them together. Nothing fancy or complicated or it defeats my purpose…….
This resturant chain, CKR, is popping out of the Quad, in its first stage. Watching it should yield some surprises.
Now CLAY is a due diligence and financial surveilance company. It is showing that someone or a bunch of someones wants a lot of this stock, in a classic first stage pop up.
This is an insurance company that popped but then never followed thru........... it was a double from about $3.00 per share.
This health goods company had the goods, but dropped the ball. It was an OTC company as is CLAY, but never really panned out.
Next time I will put some up here that have beaten the Energizer Bunny at his own game. !!
Good Luck To All,
Will it happen today. NO, probably not. We might be at a very tempting and very short term bottom in the Precious Metals TODAY at the 850 level, but I am wary. I wont share my downside targets, although these charts do illustrate them well, but my guess is it will work out over the MONTHS before the USA PRESIDENTIAL Election.
If you'd rather cuddle a Plague infested skunk, than hold US Common stocks [ Industrial variety ], it might be time to do the Rothchild Tango, 'buy when there is blood running in the streets', and 'sell when everyone is deliriously happy, dancing in the streets'. Its something that is on my mind.
Sadly I find too many agenda's out there !! That is why I stopped reading most text articles. Competing ideas are the lifeblood of a free market, but often too much of a good thing.
FIRST / we know that fiat money is a charade !
SECOND / we know that the CIRCUS-MASTERS can make things jump about when they want.
THIRD / we know they can obscure things with their paid shills and pickpockets, the hedgefunds and others thru volatility.
FOURTH and LAST / We can see every damn thing they do almost instantly, graphically because the computers we are using EACH have more than the total computing power in the world before 1963, on our desks !!!
These are my observations after 40 years. No need to push a point. I CHANGE my views as the market changes them. Much like the gofer in so many organized crime movies, when I need an opinion, the market tells me what my opinion is.........
For that reason, I can be bullish this week and bearish next.... no agenda, just trying to profit......OBJECTIVITY....my goal. We all have the same end, I just dont have the time to read everyone anymore, so I trust the markets data, not just one market and not just one kind of data.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Let me offer two charts to illustrate my point, and then you can extrapolate what conditions would be necessary to facilitate even a partial achievement of the objectives shown........
I think the truth is far stranger than we'd care to admit, except THAT this is A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR in the USA ! ! !
The implications are quite ominous for PM's and non PM's alike, for the volatility will no doubt tear your head off, if you are on the wrong side of anything.
Good Luck To All,
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
It is approximate and inexact, so use any of this information at your own discretion.
Good Luck To All
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
What possibly could have happened to create this climate in the USD or Gold?
Perhaps the recent article in the Brisbane Australia Courier-Mail would address it.
In an article titled “CUT RATES or FACE RECESSION”, it outlined ‘cooperation between central banks, specifically naming the ECB, the FED, and the Swiss Central Bank, of being desirous of seeing the ‘dollar-burnout’ so nefariously planned by Paulson, et al., stopped before it took everything else with it.
Familiarity with calamitous drops in gold prices about the time of the open of the NYMX, often make one reflect as to its suddenness and intensity. Black Boxes? Coordinated Actions? Does anyone really care WHY ?
So my answer to why this has happened in gold and the USD is that it was planned this way, IMO, and that is supported by the publically available article in the Brisbane Courier-Mail.
Now to some "NEWS YOU CAN USE":
I guess some would care WHY even if they knew WHAT. I used to care WHY. But it was an impossible task, sorting out the reasons from the volumes of material out there. That’s what I decided after taking the time to do the reading. It wasn’t a lightning bolt, it was fatigue that led me to the conclusion, that without simplicity I was lost. LOST in reams of reading. Don’t even go there, the ‘boards’ with their endless controversy and ‘bashers’, oh yeah. NO !
We can live with knowing WHAT, without knowing WHY, if we know or have a hint or a clue as to WHAT is sometime before it manifests. Its kinda like having a pioneer treasure map with landmarks but no measurable distances. You’ll know it when 1/ You see it ; 2/ When you arrive at a landmark. To be useful it would have to be a system, to be a useful system it has to be simple, fast, measurable and repeatable !!
To that end I propose that we look at the following stocks and see what the commonality is amongst: ENI ; CMP; MCF; ABB; MIG; FRG; ALY; TRA; PVX; AEZ; NFLX; NAK; ML.to; GW ; EGO. This is one of those deals where I have forgotten more than I remembered, but these ones that I have recollected will serve us well. The one-word hint here is “QUADS”.
We will explore “QUADS” as a system that helps with two of the three important parameters, WHAT and HOW MUCH. WHEN is not included in the information “QUADS” makes available, but the WHAT and HOW MUCH will do to make you very happy, if you can read this treasure map of “Quads”. Kinda like the “Mark of ZORRO” don’t ya think?? Maybe if Harrison Ford had not done his last Indiana Jones movie, he could make something of the “Mystery Treasure of the Quads”, or
is that too “out there”?
Here is a link to a graphic representation of a number of these issues:
Suffice it to say that I am learning how to place items on my blog posts.
The commonality amongst these four securities, is that sometime between now and 2002, all of them were either in, or emerged breaking upwards out of a QUADRUPLE TOP formation, meaning that they had attempted to breach the upper boundry of their trading range, and succeeded on their FOURTH try.
In the case of Enersis and Cotango Oil and Gas, the breakouts were UNDER $5.00. In conversation with a friend, I explained that QUADRUPLE TOP BREAKOUTS were of particular interest to me, for their subsequent moves could last YEARS. Multi-Year moves in QUAD TOPS, or QUADS as I refer to them often morph into many different bullish formations, but continue to move upwards for long periods of time. Most of all, this particular formation, IMO, is one of the most reliable for producing significant moves. For me, it has the fewest catastrophic failures in Technical Analysis, as far as I have seen. To be sure, it has failures and dissapointments, but for those who want a simple system to find a group of potential winners and spread their funds out amongst them, and concentrate those funds over time into the strongest issues, QUADS offer the simplest effective approach I have found.
Monday, August 4, 2008
During my investigation and analysis, I will be UNavailable for Instant Messaging and Chat.
From September 1, to May 30, I will be available for Chat and Instant Message Tues & Weds Evenings from 7PM to 9PM [ Eastern Time Zone - Eastern USA & Canada ]. Other times may be arranged in advance.
Material posted here is educational and general in nature. From time to time I will post
graphics to illustrate points that I emphasize. However I will probably not publish any or my private or proprietary information to prevent any information leakage or dilution, as I have previously experienced in other venues.
Good Luck To All