Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Ask yourself, does it look like a top or a bottom........do you need a hint?

Like the concept of Negative Interest, this is getting disturbing as the 10 Yr Treas has gone under 1.9%, as i t has on all Crises dates.  WE go Davos, We got the Greek Settlement, we got the ISDA deciding WHETHER the GREEK deal is a DEFAULT.  No stability here, I think.  Maybe a minor patch, but the Ship of the Global Economy has its PUMPS working overtime, and any pause in the pumping will sink the COSTA CONCORDIA -> global economy even lower in the water = worrisome.


Below is a depiction of the Momentum of the ADVANCES and DECLINES by MR. NASTI, which reflects the entire Nasdaq markets movement, rather a broad take which gives us direction.  This one bothers me as it shows the WIDTH and BREADTH of that that Market's advances slowing and heeling over, top heavy.  I make NO predictions other than to say, this has been my most reliable indicator over the last say 15 yrs.
So you may take it for what its worth..........

                Lastly below, is a chart that is easily re-produced, and has 3 components, one of Trend, one of Momentum Within the Trend, and one of Volume.  The MACD is as well a trend and timing indicator, so I include it for for your interest..........Here I use the Wilshire 5000 as it is very broad, and weighted as well, so I think a good reflection of what is actually happening in a Co-Incident Timing ( right up-to the moment).
I use it to determine relative position, not to predict, although position is important to attempt to guess at what is next.........

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