Shooting war or otherwise over the Euro, the essential End-Up here is that everyone gets ripped off.
Sounds very simple doesn't it. Read the fine print in the derivatives and it gives the creditor the right to seize the underlying collateral without any proceeds. Sound like a "Confession of Judgement Clause" ? It should because it is the same as. So when this is all said and done, it will end up that a majority of the currently productive assets on this planet will be concentrated in fewer yet hands.........Alarming, outrageous and disgusting, and the other 99.999% will struggle harder than before, perhaps to that ill-defined but finite limit where things turn over.
That's IT in as simple terms as we can muster. We are ALL Argentina + Greece + Libya. Read media from outside your country, read in between the lines.
IMO, my take is that this silly large cast production of getting the 30+ countries to agree in the Euro-Remediation process, is simply a stage show, compared to what is going on in the real world. From what I read, of people a lot smarter than me, combined with common sense, with or without war, this is what is likely happen.
A. The Euro Zone will continue to exist as a Free-Trade Zone, and countries taking part in it, may or may not have the Euro, or just may trade in their local currency.
B. Creditors will take "haircuts" or losses on their lending from 20% to 80%, and see new debt with lots longer dates swapped for old debt. They will do this in preference to triggering CDS's, which will happen but on a local, not global scale. Should CDS's be triggered across the board on a Global scale all bets are off.
C. Supra-National organizations like the EU will lose the ability to dictate to member states and trading partners.
It is probably going to take the specter of a living hell, THAT IS WAR, to make the EU & the other (30+) actors accept that fact that :
"A GOOD PLAN NOW IS BETTER THAN A PERFECT PLAN AT SOME INDEFINITE TIME IN THE FUTURE"
An old woman in Germany who had been thru WWII with her husband, a former SS Sgt. ( on the Eastern Front, of course, and whom survived it) told me how bad it had been for her, and I hope there are elders and seniors amongst us all to give us that sage advice, that war is NOT an option.
Lastly, Hope is NOT a strategy and it will take commitment and nerve to get through this. Also its IS GOING TO HURT. To survive we have to get over the NANNY STATE idea that no one gets hurt. NO CAN DO !
Please note, Minefinders has a $15 offer on the table from PAAS.