Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Lets see who did NOT make the cut tonite
Typically on any given day, I scan all the AMEX, and NYSE stocks for PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS in approximately 20 sub divided areas, to accumulate my quarter-final candidates for the Weekly Winners. Some weeks 5 days of scanning will yield me only 70 stocks.
This week, I gathered 145 stocks, had multiple tie entries for 4th, 6th and 10th places.
Today was scary in that it has made everyone relax as if this is a normal market.
ITS NOT. Let me say it again. ITS NOT A NORMAL Market. PERIOD.
Now who did NOT make the PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS Top 10 Stocks ? The following stocks DID Not, nor never have made the PEAK PERFORMANCE TOP 10 PICKS, yet: GSX ; CEP ; AWC ; PCS ; GXP ; NOG ; GU ; AHD ; GRO ; FSS. And yet they can be traded, BUT they have not clued me in that they are ready to run for YOU, Now !
Gold is down, the market is up. The market loves weak dollar, and gold goes with it to an extent.
What can you say about a market like this ? Gary Tanashian of Biiwi.blogspot.com summed it up best. It is about devaluation rally. The market loves a weak buck, so I think there will be a lotta lovin' to go around as far as Uncle Buck and the Big Apple Mkt is concerned. OK now we got that out of the way. Yes Gold vaulted over $1000 at least a half dozen times, hourly in the last 3 days. OK, now what? Goldbugs are euphoric 'cause "it did it !". And as Peggy Lee once sang, "Is that all there is........?"
Now lets move back to the premise of a devaluation rally. So everytime the buck goes down, gold and the general market go up. Good you say, or bad? Well step back.
Your stock goes up, good. Your stock goes down, bad. Pretty simple,sort of but not quite. The US Govt has either an active or passive policy of monetary neglect of the US Dollar's role as a store of value. A dollar today isnt your grandad's dollar.
Therefore, your total rate of return must outrun the depriciation of the currency you deal in.
So now scalp off 30% in two weeks. That's 750% or thereabouts a year. Seven and a half times your capital returned to you over 1 year. That is a 6%+ return that should offset any currency depriciations . That is why the above 10 stocks did NOT make the PEAK PICKS TOP 10 stocks. Some of them, one of them might do it for you, but I cannot make book, odds-on that will happen. I cant make book, odds-on that even the TOP 10 WILL do that for sure every time. HOWEVER I do make book on the fact that of every 4 Gold Medal Winners, 3 of them profit, 1 is a laggard, and at least One [ 1 ] of the weekly winners goes on for big and long term profits.
I am never sure which stock is 'The ONE', like "Neo" in the Matrix, but I do know for every group of TOP 10 Picks, your profit is in there. Given my methods, I KNOW that the TOP THREE contain certain winners. The ones I presented tonite have winners in them, but spotlighting them is a lot harder than finding the winners in the TOP 10 that go out tomorrow.
For me its about "Odds-on Probabilities [ House Bet], rather than "Might if your lucky".
Gold will have its day as will Nat Gas, Crude Oil and Aluminum, and whatever sector offers stocks ready to run, will find us there picking them.
Pick stocks, manage your portfolio, impose your 'stop loss limits' and 'take profit points', and as in football, discipline, discipline, discipline, and execute, execute, execute. Conjecture about the market after you take profits over a scotch, but buy and sell stocks. Know the market, trade stocks.
That's my rant for tonite.