Thursday, March 26, 2009
NUCLEAR SCARENARIO - Nightmare on Main St.
kinda like what some guys said back at the beginning of 2009, a one or two day pop down to 5k on the DOW ! ! Likely ?? I dont know. Possible. YES, Psychologically, mathematically and logically, YES, YES and YES.
Techically speaking, $4954.44 is the lower Bollinger Band [ 3.0, 30 ] on the weekly DOW 1 year chart. Mathematically possible for an INTRA-DAY Target, YES.
$ 4954.44 on the DOW would Satisfy all DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVES. IT WOULD PLAY HELL ON EVERY PORTFOLIO, AND VIRTUALLY WRECK EVERYONE, running all the stops, and panic'g everyone to sell out at the bottom. But what would be the point at selling out there? NONE !
IF such a move had happened back in January, it might well have signalled the end of markets as we know them. IT DID NOT HAPPEN.
Were such a move to happen now, it WOULD literally knock the DOW back to it's support from the beginning of the REAGAN BULL MARKET. In todays world of instant & amazing volatility, it wouldnt last too long.
So "WHATS IN YOUR WALLET" ? Says the guy in red with the pointy horns and tail on the CAPITAL ONE commercial. Are you prepared for HELL Freezing OVER? Dont put your tongue on any metal objects yet.
I guess "Preparing for Hell freezing over" means you have reasonable stops under your positions, and an awareness and readiness to be in a BEAR ETF or SELL Options for cash, if the circumstances warrant . SO SIMPLE A CAVEMAN COULD DO IT ! !
And to quote a noteble and possibly appicable phrase from the Christian Bible as I remember it
:"...for no one shall know the appointed hour when HE shall return, for HE shall come as if a thief in the night...." [ I know its a paraphrase but you get the idea ].
If the results of a possiblity are CATASTROPHIC, HEDGE AGAINST IT...... WHAT's in your WALLET?
I think I have said enough.