Monday, August 11, 2008

The QUEST, Sophistication thru Simplicity


The quest for profits is fraught with danger. Emotions. Treacherous Markets. Hidden Agendas. New Players. Changing dynamics.

What sets the Successful Questors aside from the rest? Inside Information. Huge Capital. Financial Agility. Nerves of Steel.

My answer is that it is a mixed bag, some, all, none of each. That is a very strong “I DON’T KNOW !!”

What do I know. I know for every long side of a transaction, there is a short side. Normally, there are not many ties in the marketplace, and also the HOUSE gets a piece of the action.

Whereas when someone says: “ It was a BAD WEEK in the MARKETS”, I can only assume they meant for their mindset. Were they short? Were they long? What was the counter party to their transaction -> I bet that Counter Party had a GOOD WEEK in the MARKETS.

THEREFORE it depends on your viewpoint. Did we get our viewpoint from market dynamics, and try to fit IT TO THE MARKET, or did we HAVE a VIEWPoint and try to MAKE THE MARKET FIT that viewpoint? ?? Which approach HURT more?

I know I HATE getting whipped in and out of my stops. BUT that is way less painful that enduring a position that goes south on me and stays there ! ! !

Ricard Wycoff once said it was much more important to heed what the market was saying about others, than to heed what others were saying about the market.


The below is what I consider objective, from Stockcharts this morning. This is not to suggest, that I think it is the ONLY way. No ! ! However we know this to be objective information. It is mathematical and physics, and must obey all the laws of those disciplines. Therefore, I would be inclined to depend upon it, and my findings concering it, rather than the subjective ramblings of any writers, myself included.

P&F Quadruple Top Alerts (NYSE) Create your own scans
8 Aug 2008
Symbol Name Exch Open High Low Close Volume
CKR Cke Restaurants, Inc. NYSE 13.000 13.800 12.920 13.660 1139524
IHI iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices NYSE 61.420 62.470 60.993 62.436 172733
MDT Medtronic, Inc. NYSE 52.330 53.830 52.180 53.740 7336946
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. NYSE 59.960 61.150 59.760 61.000 2731644
UFI Unifi, Inc. NYSE 3.400 3.490 3.180 3.300 780502

What does it really tell us> ? ? It tell us that these stock broke upward out of a trading range however long, bounded by three previously unsuccessful tries to breach the upper boundary of that trading range. That’s ALL it tells us. We can learn and infer far more, but that’s ALL it tells us, but that is IRREFUTABLE, alth subject to retraction and reversal.

Now ask yourself, what of the subjective market writings that we read daily is NOT subject to retraction and reversal? Also how do we vett or verify that information?
WE KNOW THIS INFORMATION to be perfectly VETTED and it is information on hand at this instant.

Look at the chart of CKR on the previous post. Do your own homework [ DYOH] and then do your own due diligence [ DYODD ]. There are many methods out there. Pick any two or three that you can cross reference and cross correlate, and DYOH, DYODD.

Oh yes, tis nice to talk with other passengers when we are on a boat, at the rail, but if too many crowd onto the same side of the boat, well you tell me what happens ? ? ?


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