Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Maybe Weimar, maybe Mini ?

Right now, I am, at various times, long the USD, or long gold, or some oil and nat gas stocks. Some other non-resource stocks beckon, but I am not too eager to jump in yet, both feet into ANYTHING. China, & the US Prez Election are having massive influence, INSIDE the major cycles, and they KNOW what they are doing, hence, IMO, the strength under this $ US DOLLAR run up. While I am not sure where it will stop, I have 87 as the total top target for the US Dollar. Should it run there t and stay there, it would put the GOLD bull market in suspension, but as far as I can see, the demands of the Billions of people in the developing world will force energy and food higher, so the complex of metals, from Iron to Moly to Gold, and Energy and Food will regress to the mean, which would mean the Bull Market in all those things would resume.

Know what a total planetary disaster getting into a deflationary stall-spin [ Death Spiral], would entail, EVERYONE on the PLANET wants to resume inflation. I think this deflation was a ballsy move on the part of TPTB to slow down the Weimar and make sure it only is a Mini-Weimar until they reconnect gold to currency at some FOUR DIGIT Dollar Conversion Figure. IF it goes to FIVE Figures its going to have been a FULL WEIMAR, and with MORE devastating consequences than if they can do it in the FOUR FIGURES. Essentially once it gets above the the INFLATION ADJUSTED BREAKEVEN @ a Given Date, then you can use the actual gold price to determine how bad or good things are. Given that other commodities are either in More or Less demand at that time, will tell you whether to be in Food, Fertilizer, Silver, Platinum, Moly, Water, Coal, Nat Gas, Oil, Solar, GeoThermal, or whatever.

We might dislike the monetary and governmental authorities for their hypocrisy and lies, but they in fact, will do both what they are ordered to, and what it takes to keep the wheels turning.

Given that fact, and that we all live on the same planet, to twist and paraphrase what Ben Franklin said, " We will have to hang in there with THEM, for in the END, if they fail, we might ALL be hung seperately but it will be of the SAME ROPE". Like it or not, our fates are similarly entwined with theirs, no matter what precautions we might have taken.
Should we have successfully [ in our own minds ] insulated ourselves from the fates of the masses, be assured it will only make our demise slightly later and slightly more the end we will suffer the same fate. Thats my view, and why I hope those in control, can do a controlled crash landing of this damaged Boeing 777 of a world economy with a minimum of damage.
Granted we might destroy ourselves with nuclear weapons, the chances of that drop, IMO, tremendously as Global economies positively effect Regional economies, aside from
Philosophical differences [ i.e. in the case of 'supposidly COMMUNIST China ] could cause a difference but IMO, they will be trumped by Financial Success.



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